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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (25255)	3/9/2005 10:01:51 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Layoffs Du Jour 73, Cingular Wireless Cingular issues 73 layoff warnings seattle.bizjournals.com Cingular Wireless has issued layoff notices to 73 employees at facilities in Bothell and Redmond, according to a notice sent to the state Employment Security Department. The terminations are effective April 29. 450, The Illinois Department of Human Services Rockford, Illinois- More layoffs are planned for stateline workers. wtvo.com The Illinois Department of Human Services plans to layoff more than 450 workers, including 10 at the Singer Mental Health Center in Rockford. Officials say the notices will be sent out next Friday. Cuts include eight mental health technicians, one clerical worker and one life skills coordinator. However there will be 13 openings at the facility, so those eliminated may be moved into another position. 1100....Weston # Weston puts closing sign on 2 plants Toronto Star - Mar 05 1:36 AM North America's third-largest bakery, George Weston Ltd., is closing two plants and cutting 1,100 jobs as consumer tastes shift away from sweets and white bread and more toward healthier whole-grain products. news.yahoo.com 110...Thomasville Furniture-2686 lost since 2001 Posted on Sat, Mar. 05, 2005 Thomasville, Lexington announce job cuts at furniture plants Associated Press HIGH POINT, N.C. - Thomasville Furniture Industries will cut 110 jobs at two of its plants in Davidson County, the company announced Friday. Plant C had about 160 employees and manufactures dining room tables and chairs. About 96 jobs at Plant C will be eliminated. About 14 of the 126 jobs at Plant V were eliminated due to reduced veneer needs associated with lost production at Plant C. miami.com Maytag will continue to outsource Maytag Executives Outline Company Strategy CEO Says Company Plans To Continue Outsourcing DES MOINES, Iowa -- Maytag chief executive officer said Monday that the company will pursue more efficient manufacturing plants and continue to outsource more of its production to foreign companies. Ralph Hake talked about Maytag's strategy at an investors' conference in Orlando, Fla. He said about 12 percent of Maytag's products are made overseas, but the percentage will go up. The Newton-based appliance maker closed its refrigerator plant in Galesburg, Ill., last year and opened a new factory in Mexico. Hake said washer and dryer plants will see changes too. Maytag has laundry plants in Newton as well as Herrin, Ill., and Searcy, Ark. He said cost cutting measures last year saved $30 million. The company is on track to save $150 million this year. theiowachannel.com 220...Alcoa This facility employs 2200 Alcoa to Lay Off Some Quad Cities Workers Tuesday March 8, 11:25 am ET Alcoa to Lay Off About 20 Percent of Salaried Workforce in Quad Cities in Next 10 Days RIVERDALE, Iowa (AP) -- Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. said Tuesday it will restructure its salaried workforce in the Quad Cities during the next 10 days, laying off about 20 percent of those employees. Alcoa to Lay Off Some Quad Cities Workers Tuesday March 8, 11:25 am ET Alcoa to Lay Off About 20 Percent of Salaried Workforce in Quad Cities in Next 10 Days biz.yahoo.com 200....Bernhadt Furniture Layoffs announced at furniture plant in Lenoir The Charlotte Observer - Mar 09 12:24 AM Bernhardt Furniture Co. will cut more than 200 jobs and halt manufacturing at a Lenoir plant, company officials announced Tuesday. The layoffs will take place at Bernhardt's Plant No. 2 in Lenoir, about 70 miles northwest of Charlotte, officials said in a news release. charlotte.com 70....Xerox Xerox cuts 70 jobs at Webster Manufacturing employees are offered company's standard severance package Rochester Democrat and Chronicle - Mar 09 2:27 AM (March 9, 2005) — Xerox Corp. is laying off 70 manufacturing employees at its Webster campus and cutting an undetermined number of service technicians nationwide through a voluntary reduction. rochesterdandc.com

To: Earlie who wrote (25255)	3/10/2005 12:27:18 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

My first Blog! Calculated Risk helped me build this. It took a long time and some things are still not exactly right. globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

To: Earlie who wrote (25255)	3/10/2005 12:34:42 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Dollar Declines After Koizumi Says Japan May Consider Diversify Reserves March 10 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped in Asia after Japan's Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said his country ``in general' needs to consider diversifying the investment of its foreign reserves. Japan needs to make an ``overall judgment' on how to invest reserves by considering the stability of such investments, he said today at the budget committee of the upper house of the Parliament in Tokyo. The dollar fell 1.4 percent against the euro and the yen on Feb. 22 on a report South Korea's central bank will diversify its currency reserves, a comment clarified by the country later. ``Koizumi's remarks led to concern the money will move away from the U.S. dollar assets, leading to the dollar selling,' said Minoru Shioiri, senior manager of the treasury and foreign exchange division in Tokyo at Mitsubishi Securities Co., a unit of Japan's second-biggest lender. The dollar may fall to near 103 yen today, he said. The dollar dropped to $1.3412 against the euro as at 11:45 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.3391 late yesterday in New York, according to electronic currency-dealing system EBS. It traded at 103.94 yen from 103.93. bloomberg.com

To: Earlie who wrote (25255)	3/10/2005 12:36:19 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Bank of Korea says will intervene if forex moved by speculation Thursday, March 10, 2005 4:07:13 AM forexstreet.com SEOUL (AFX) - The Bank of Korea said that it will intervene in the market if the won moves too sharply, driven by speculation or non-market factors. "We will not allow the won to rise sharply if it moves beyond a reasonable level, with speculation or non-market factors dictating," the bank's governor Park Seung said at a press briefing after a rate-setting meeting He said he was concerned that the won has risen more than three pct against the greenback so far this year while the euro and yen have fallen two pct, making it one of the currencies that has appreciated the most. "The won has been running up too fast. It's out of the normal pace," he warned He called for a concerted international effort to tame foreign exchange rates, with the major countries adopting more flexible policies to help Washington reduce the twin deficits, a key source of the greenback's global weakness. He added that any market intervention by the central bank will be made only when a market failure emerges, stressing little change in its basic stance to leave the market in the hands of market players

To: Earlie who wrote (25255)	3/10/2005 1:03:11 AM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Earlie, you have made a valid point in terms of the overcapacity of cell phone market. Here are some latest numbers from China: In 2004, China produced 170 million cell phones. The domestic demand in China was only 70 million, and the rest were exported. The capacity in 2005 for sure will be higher than that in 2004, so the oversupply might be really bad if no new market is developed. China produced about 1/3 of all the cell phones in the world, and consumed about 20% of the total, so both are positioned as number one in the world. 90% of those 170 million cell phones were assembled in China by using imported materials in 2004. So when the cell phone market collapses, China will not be the major one who suffers. The ones who suffer the most will be Nokia, Japanese, S. Korean companies... In 2005, the major hope of the cell phone market will be the upgrade and the demand for fancy model in EU and N. America, the new users in Latin America (like Brazil and Mexico), Asia (like India), in Eastern Europe and ASEAN countries. And 3G market might also have some strong demand in late 2005. For the last 2 decdes, especially the last 3 years since China has joined the WTO, Chinese leaders and businesses have been really short sighted, and contended themselves to be the so-called world factory and proud of being the cheap labor. They have spent little resources, energy and time in R&D, so now they stuck in the lowest food chain. Luckily, now some high ranking officials have realized this, so started to make some effort in developing their own technology and brand names. For sure, it will take some time to catch up. But it is a start. >>Economically, card chip capability is not consequential compared with the "big two" (PCs and cell phones) markets.<< True, but big number still counts, right? >>How will China handle such a slow-down at this crucial stage of its economic expansion? I sure do not know, but I expect that it will be traumatic<< >70% Of all the exports from China to the US are made by the US and/or other multinational companies located in China. So if the US slows down and lowers the demand for imports, China will suffer some (higher unemployment rate), but not traumatic. The ones who will suffer the most are those multi-national companies, and most of them are US companies themselves. China only makes 0.5% - 5% of profit from all those assembling and low-end manufacturing. They would not affect China's GDP a whole lot. Of those 100 million or so exported cell phones in 2004, 95% were made by foreign companies located in China, and only 4% were make by Chinese cell phone companies. So what if the exports cut by half? who will suffer the most? Not the Chinese companies. Furthermore, China has, since the last two years, made some major effort to open the market in ASEAN, West Asia (MD), Latin America.... 90% of HUAWEI’s US$2.28 billion plus international revenue in 2004 comes from customers in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia Pacific, not developed countries. And this is the trend big Chinese companies will follow. Message 20931919 Best regard, and happy shorting<g>

To: Earlie who wrote (25255)	3/11/2005 2:12:06 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

Currency Madness Between February 22 and March 10 we have witnessed in order the following sequence of statements by South Korean officials 1) South Korea would diversify out of US$ 2) denial of those statements 3) threats to intervene and buy US$ 4) actually carrying out that threat with a $2 billion currency intervention. Meanwhile Japan 1) threatened to intervene 2) the Japanese PM threatened to diversify out of US$ 3) later the very same day the Japanese MOF denied that diversification threat. ........ ..... My latest blog post globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com