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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly Buy and Sell Set Ups -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bob V who wrote (2709)	3/10/2005 11:29:10 AM
From: profile_14	Respond to of 13449

You can believe the numbers unless they are fraudulent. The rules are set so learn how to interpret numbers. Most people hate reading 10-Qs and 10-Ks, but that is how nuggets of information are uncovered and money is made because since most people do not read, they are left to media outlets regurgitating plagiarized and recycled information, IMO. Independent thinking and a willingness to construct a mosaic of information for decision making is what works, IMO, because the masses will follow anyone off a cliff, whether by CNBC, FA, or a chart. All it shows is conditioned behavior and it is taking advantage of such conditioned behavior that provides opportunities since markets are efficient. All of these events are random and not believing that a black swan event can occur is what does most people in. They think they can write calls each month, follow the charts, read the press releases, bet on a falling dollar, rising oil, steel, whatever, and not get hurt because "it is different this time." BS. It is all random. Question everything and the assumptions. Do you think Chinese can afford $55 dollar oil with per capita income being a fraction of what we make? Question everything all the time. Take your profits and consider anything over a 6%-7% annualized gain as beating the market and staying well ahead of the game. For each mega winner there is a mega loser somewhere. Don't get greedy is my mantra.

To: Bob V who wrote (2709)	3/10/2005 11:50:40 AM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13449

Bob, I would extend my beliefs to this point: every time you've made really good profits, you've done it because you managed to get on the right side of a trend. Every time you've done that and closed out your position early (seller's regret) you've let your even better profits slip away. Every time you've held on too long and given back your profits it is because you failed to have a system in place that would identify a change in trend and/or protect profits in some other way (2ATR trailing stop, for example, etc.) What a serious trader needs to do is find a system that will get him on the right side of trends. FA and (traditional) TA consistently fail to do that, so serious traders need to find a third way. [Please note, nothing in these ideas involves calling tops or bottoms, because there is no system that can do that successfully over time without risking tremendous portfolio damage.] Kb