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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: russwinter who wrote (28390)3/11/2005 12:02:07 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 110194
 
I think one of the aspect of this big bond selloff that is clearly a surprise to me, and perhaps even more so for you, is the inability of credit spreads to widen, in fact they've narrowed .

Yes there is a big divergence.
The demand for junk is just staggering.
Brian reynolds at Minyanville expects another push higher in equities if these spreads stay narrow.

I am waiting for the downgrade of GM or F to junk.
Let's see if that chokes them.
Otherwise I am as confused as you are.

I have said repeatedly and will say so again, the BIG BUBBLE is in junk bonds not US treasuries.

Mish



To: russwinter who wrote (28390)3/11/2005 12:04:21 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
is there a chart of agencies?
I sure would like to see one.

I think I will do a blog on this idea this weekend.

Thanks



To: russwinter who wrote (28390)3/11/2005 12:27:36 PM
From: John Vosilla  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
Russ do you think the record narrow risk premium for junk bonds goes hand in hand with the reckless speculation in real estate in the bubble markets where yields are down to 1% or 2%? Meanwhile small cap stocks outside of the remaining few leadership groups continue to get completely crushed as if a serious recession is on the horizon.