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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (40092)	3/11/2005 3:34:06 PM
From: CommanderCricket	Respond to of 206212

I should be taking out and shot! LOL Thanks, Michael

To: Paul Senior who wrote (40092)	3/12/2005 9:23:55 AM
From: chowder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206212

>>> I like your courage, esp. as it seems to be going against the grain of many recent, well-articulated posts here. <<< Paul, with all due respect, going long anything in the oil service sector yesterday, even if it's successful, was a high risk low reward play. I'm one of those who was bearish playing the OSX yesterday although I clearly said ... >>> I think any bounce plays here should be very short term in nature as I think they will be met with more selling. <<< Message 21123868 Met with more selling! The reason why most people can't outperform the market is because they don't understand the odds. One can always get lucky but luck doesn't provide one with results that can consistently outperform the market. Trading plans must be "conceptually" correct, as they apply to the law of supply and demand, if one is going to beat the market consistently. The key word being consistently. Buying pull backs that set lower lows and break below support levels is not a trading plan that will not provide positive results consistently. Going long when supply is greater than demand is not conceptually correct. Even if one succeeds at it, it is providing false motivation. It is not a system that can be duplicated again and again and again with positive results. It's why most people eventually give back the gains they earned. The OSX bounced yesterday as I said it had a possibility of doing and what happened? It was met with more selling! Look at the chart. Note yesterday's candlestick pattern. You will see a long tail on top, or shadow as it is called. You have a topping tail into a level of resistance represented by a gap and a major moving average. There really wasn't enough reward to make the play when you consider the risks involved. Considering the OSX traded as high as 2.2% and finished up only 0.3% confirms the amount of risk taken with going long the OSX yesterday. And add to this that even though the OSX finished up on the day, the MACD which measures trend was convincingly growing weaker. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[d20041212,20050312][pb50!b20!f][vc60][iut!Lah10,30,5!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G Now again, I'm not saying a 2-3 day trade may not be successful but, most people here are thinking longer term than that and if they are, the risks are far greater than the reward "at this point." If one doesn't know how to measure risk and apply it properly, they "will not" outperform the markets on a consistent basis. That's why studies show that 95% of retail investors can't do it. They don't know how to measure risk. Anyone can enjoy short term success but, it's how we do over the long run that truly counts. And if we are to be successful over the long run, we must take low risk, high probability trades, not high risk, low probability trades. Buying the OSX yesterday was a high risk, low probability play. Even if it works, it isn't a system that can be applied over and over and obtain positive results. The chart for yesterday is showing weakness, not strength, even though the OSX finished up on the day. The rally was met with selling. There is a lot of supply coming to market and it's going to be tough for demand to offset it. Institutions are selling and they won't be buying back a week after locking in profits. Their trading styles don't allow it. They will rotate to other sectors. I don't think you can count on them to help break through resistance. Maybe some market moving news will come along to change things, that's always a posssibility. But for now, the price is reflecting everything that is known up to now and yesterday's price action is clearly showing that people are wanting to exit this sector. dabum