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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: philv who wrote (22605)	3/11/2005 8:24:00 PM
From: sea_urchin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81109

Phil > I just find it hard to accept Faber's argument, especially in the medium to long term. I just can't think of any good reason, given the fundamentals, for the dollar to appreciate. Add to that an aphorism, possibly as important, which is that a trend in motion (ie the bear on the USD) will continue until something happens to stop it. And, for what it's worth, I am unaware of any factors which are operating to stop it. Yet Faber, besides being an astute financial commentator, is also a philosopher, indeed one might say, a bullshitter -- >>Most of my day is spent reading and studying, but when I see so many highly intelligent and knowledgeable analysts, strategists, and economists coming to totally different conclusions concerning the outlook for the economy and investment markets, I usually finish my reading with far more doubts than firm convictions. I am also mindful that, as Don Marquis (the creator of 'Archy and Mehitabel', a cockroach and a cat who offered witty observations about life in the 1920s and 1930s) remarked, 'The more conscious a philosopher is of the weak spots of his theory, the more he is to speak with an air of final authority.' The same could be said of us so-called financial experts, whereby the problem usually arises because investors will avoid listening to or reading the comments of an analyst, economist, or strategist who expresses doubts because of the many opposing economic and financial trends. Therefore, as I sit down every month to write this report, I frequently feel, as Wittgenstein observed in his seventh aphorism, 'When you don't know what you are talking about, shut up.' << But he has to say something, his investment followers are waiting for the "pearls" with bated breath. So he covers his arse, sticks his tongue in his cheek, puts on his yarmulka, says ten Hail Mary's -- and then he prognosticates: >>... the US dollar has quickly rallied by more than 5% against the Euro, and, therefore, a correction should be expected in the near term, which would offer a better USD entry point. <<

To: philv who wrote (22605)	3/11/2005 9:48:46 PM
From: philv	Respond to of 81109

A contrarian dilema. If your reputation as a contrarian is based on making a few correct calls, clearly against established main stream consensus, you can rightfully hold the title and bragging rights. But what if gradually your original contrarian view takes hold and becomes main stream thinking? Now what does one do? Obviously the original call must have been incorrect, and to stay in the grove, you have to change your call by 180 degrees. And hope that the crowd doesn't follow you again! One's success can be one's downfall! {g}