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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vendit™ who wrote (6301)	3/11/2005 6:56:39 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8752

Okay, so QQQQ was convincingly turned away from all that resistance, including resistance from the descending 50 sma: stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLg!Lyb20,2.0]&pref=G On to the lower BB rail now, currently at $36.88, just $0.13 below the low of today's session. Note that the BBs are still just as acutely contracted at 1.30, there has been no resolution there yet. QQQQ will have to push that lower rail down now. So below the lower BB rail, we have the 200 sma, currently at $36.52: stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][pb200!d20,2][vc60][iLg!Lyb20,2.0]&pref=G I think that is all but certain to fall, and QQQQ will dip below $36. Next test is the lower regression channel rail, currently just below $36, but by the time QQQQ can trade down that far, it will probably be at $35.50 or lower: hhttp://139.142.147.218/StockChart_ImageOnly.dll?cus=0&co=ask&i_chart=0&inm=5&ind=2&idx_sym=&sb=qqqq&cn=us&size=3&ind2=-12&inm2=-2&ty=2&sca=1&mov1=200&mov2=40&mov3=0&boll=0&chk_lin=on&lin=14&chk_vol=on&chk_obv=on&rsi=8&chk_sto=on&sto1=15&sto2=5&sto3=5&chk_wil=on&wil=12&chk_macd=on&macd1=12&macd2=25&macd3=9&chk_roc=on&roc1=16&roc2=8&chk_mfi=on&mfi=14&chk_rsc=on&rsc_sym=INX&ref_rate=180 Note the bearish candle at the upper rail. Now look what happens if you set the regression channel to the long-term trend.... lower rail is at about $35.50 or so, maybe a bit less: 139.142.147.218 Once again, I think this level will fall, and QQQQ will briefly (2 - 3 weeks at the most) dip below that rail, just like it did at the end of the last medium-term correction which ended in early August. So the most likely reversal zone is at about $35.00, which represents solid long-term chart support. It could dip briefly below that, but will not confirm the failure, and will instead reverse and resume the long-term uptrend. Volume patterns are shaping up nicely, and are consistent with a sustained uptrend beginning after QQQQ reverses. I think the whole process will probably take 2 - 4 weeks to play out, possibly a bit longer. ..... all IMHO, of course.