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Politics : Sioux Nation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patricia Trinchero who wrote (9916)	3/12/2005 12:04:36 AM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 361688

The trade imbalance / current account deficit is a complicated issue and the experts on international finance disagree on the seriousness of the situation. The big question is will the adjustment be gradual or lead to a hard landing. Greenspan has argued for a gradual adjustment. He gave a speech yesterday: federalreserve.gov Here is a paper that argues for a potential hard landing (by Roubini and Setser - the guys that predicted Argentina's problems). stern.nyu.edu China has an interest in having any adjustment be gradual since they don't want their best customer to have a recession. So I doubt they will put a "squeeze" on the dollar.