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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (28482)	3/12/2005 10:45:59 AM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Why is Everyone Smarter Than The Futures Market? Fadel Gheit was smarter than the futures market in all of 2004. So was that Emerson chick from the Oil Analytics group in Boston in 2004--interviewed every day on bloomberg, as was every mutual fund manager on TV--in 2004. They all got stuffed. Hammered. And the sentiment towards the energy and oil stocks was smarter than the futures market, as the prices of crude out to 2010 soared, while the stocks slept. Wall street got dragged kicking and screaming finally, into the stocks in 2005. And 75% of the stocks imo are still cheap and may even be cheaper than last year. I'll take the action in the futures market over commentary. A single oil contract is not cheap, and they're trading lots of them. If I recall, you loaded up on 2009's below 30.00 (!)

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (28482)	3/12/2005 10:53:29 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

<this is a very common theory> Yes, and it's been a theory often incorrectly applied. I commented late last year, about how this story was out there, even as the evidence suggested the specs were barely long. It's all relative. Example: to say the hedge funds and Pig Men are influencing prices when they are 60,000 long is mostly BS. However, when they are at 200,000, that's a different story, they are strongly influencing price. <short term price swings are not my game> Nor mine either especially, except here I'm calling for an important market top, even if perhaps a bit higher first. Being long energy now is high risk. <Small specs> A very small piece of the picture, this is leveraged Pig Men driven now: 64.82.65.31 <equities still seem to be discounting about $35 WTI> I agree that they aren't especially priced for $55, but I now think it's much higher than $35. Plus most of these companies are failing to replace reserves. I don't think liquidating royalities should be premium priced. <the spec net long position can be sustained at a pretty high level for months on end, and we have only had a big spec runup the past couple weeks.> This is very true, although my experience with energy (unlike some others) is that tipping points arrive fairly quickly when they get offside. Combined with my China and Wizard tightening theory, I would play this very close to vest.