Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (28491)	3/12/2005 3:42:09 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

I think the concern is the near term charts amoung cautious folks on the board that is a common refrain one hears: "commodities are short-term overbought and need to correct big-time, but they're going MUCH higher in the long run". the reason i don't like this argument is that it mixes a short-term argument based on sentiment with a long-term argument based on fundamentals. i just don't think many people can invest successfully by focusing on multiple time frames and using various criteria for each time frame simultaneously. the main advantage i see for unleveraged small investors is that they don't have career risk based on performance in a single quarter. this gives one the freedom to pick a longer time horizon, where there is arguably less "competition" (hedge funds by and large can't operate based on a ten-year time horizon). willy-nilly mixing and matching short- and long-term horizons greatly compounds the likelihood of shooting oneself in the foot, imo. that doesn't mean there won't be nasty near-term corrections, but rather i don't think most people are going to correctly avoid those corrections and trade in and out successfully in line with their long-term outlook. one risks missing the forest for the pine needles.