Mr Vet > The Euro .... has borne the brunt of the dollar devaluation
I agree and mainly because the Japs keep selling the Yen and buying dollars.
> But now with increasing long term US interest rates a new dynamic enters the picture. If the Japanese or others simply hold, but don't do any new buying of US treasuries, then their absence from the market will put even more pressure on bonds, dropping prices and raising yields.
I agree with all of that.
> The result would be an increasingly rapid drop in the value of the $800 billion or so US securities that they [Japanese]are holding
Here's the long term chart of US 30yr Treasuries valued in Yen. I'd say the Japs are breaking even, over the years, now but I'm sure they wouldn't like it do go down more.
stockcharts.com[w,a]dallynay[dm][pd200,2]
> The truth is that virtually all fiat currencies (with the possible exception of the Rand) have devalued together following the USD down
Now we have to agree to differ. I'd say all the principal currencies (including the rand) have all appreciated against the USD -- and these are the charts to prove it:
stockcharts.com[l,a]walaynay[dj][pd20,2][ila12,26,9!lb14]
stockcharts.com[l,a]walaynay[dj][pd20,2][ila12,26,9!lb14]
stockcharts.com[l,a]walaynay[dj][pd20,2][ila12,26,9!lb14]
stockcharts.com[l,a]walaynay[dj][pd20,2][ila12,26,9!lb14]
stockcharts.com[l,a]walaynay[dj][pd20,2][ila12,26,9!lb14]
stockcharts.com[l,a]walaynay[dj][pd20,2][ila12,26,9!lb14]
stockcharts.com[l,a]walaynay[dj][pd20,2][ila12,26,9!lb14]
stockcharts.com[l,a]walaynay[dj][pd20,2][ila12,26,9!lb14]
stockcharts.com[l,a]walaynay[dj][pd20,2][ila12,26,9!lb14]
>overproduction of manufactured goods by low wages countries like China has hidden the normal inflation that should have been apparent
That's been the US' trick in how it keeps domestic inflation down -- employ Chinese at slave wages to produce its goods -- and then bullshit everyone about "human rights" and "democracy". If the truth be told, the US is the biggest beneficiary of human exploitation on the globe. But then, of course, the Chinese, although not the workers, do have the choice not to sell so cheaply.
> When real "stuff" gets to be in short supply, the price will go eventually up regardless of the market distorting effects
I would say yes, but providing there is still demand for the goods manufactured from that "stuff". |
