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Strategies & Market Trends : YEEHAW CANDIDATES -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ken W who wrote (7095)	3/12/2005 7:40:37 PM
From: Ditchdigger	Respond to of 23958

Next week is going to make for an interesting one regards oil though. Looks like continued colder weather here in the NE, not much out of the 20's here, should be unseasonably high demand for heating products..You know the powers to be want to drive it down, but with a weakling usd, they might have trouble..Rising euro will soften the blow in euroland, since oil is bought and sold in usd's..me thinks traders have pushed it to high, but still could take it to 60 before a short term lag,then summer driving season begins and possibly supports oil in the low 50's for awhile. My overall market view, aside from what should be seasonal high flows of cash into the markets, I think the greenspan delayed shit storm has started to cloud the skies..sorry for the graphics<g> I think the fed has tinkered themselves into a corner, would have been better off letting the last bubble burst run it's course and cleansed out the markets. My local paper now has ads for 3 new condo developements advertiseing preconstruction prices,,one of them has yet to even begin the permitting process<lol>, and they are looking for $300k preconstruction,,it's going to crash at some point. Although I will say, much of this second home re is being paid for in cash, I only wonder if they haven't sucked equity out of their primary homes to do it..My little sleepy valley is waking up, and I for one don;t like it...errrrrrrr..;^)

To: Ken W who wrote (7095)	3/13/2005 2:47:40 PM
From: Sergio H	Respond to of 23958

Ken, I found crude's resistance at 55 particularly interesting because 55 is a Fibonacci number. An excerpt from INO.COM: <I use the Fibonacci series in a number of ways, in terms of both time and price movement. I will briefly discuss some basic time movements. The 13-week pattern in hogs is the simplest application of finding market turns based on a Fibonacci number. Markets will often turn on a time span which is a Fibonacci count from a previous important event. For example, look at the monthly cattle chart to see several turns on or about 21 months from a previous high or low. Time counts can be done on virtually any type of chart. The turns can be counted in terms of days, weeks, months or even years. I have found weekly counts to be the most practical and very effective. Another powerful method is to look for areas where Fibonacci time counts from various previous lows and highs converge. In analyzing price action, the simplest way to use Fibonacci numbers (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144...) is on support and resistance levels or pivot levels. For example: 5.00 and 8.00 soybeans, 5.50 (55) soybeans, 3.00 corn, 500 gold, 5.00 silver, 1.44 oats, 34.00 hogs, 55.00 cattle, and so on. Lengths of moves in terms of price commonly are a Fibonacci number. The downmove on the weekly crude oil chart was $22, which was followed by a $13 rally. Livestock commonly move in increments of $5, $8 or $13. Grains like to move in 8<);, 13<l; and 214; swings. Treasury bonds and Treasury bills often move in Fibonacci increments in terms of both time and price. The most common application of Fibonacci numbers is the use of ratios within the number series. Many people do not realize that the common retracement levels are derivatives of Fibonacci relationships. Fifty percent is 1 - 2, 66 is 2 - 3 and thereafter, any number in the series divided by the next results in 62 . Also, starting with 3, any number divided by the second number following it will result in 38 (3 - 8, 5 - 13, etc.). >