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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: davidk555 who wrote (21940)	3/17/2005 11:51:24 AM
From: sea_biscuit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

I doubt if Brinker will be able to call a proper exit to this cyclical bull. But if he does, hats off to him. The reasons why I say so are that (a) at least two of his measures i.e. inflation and valuation, are based on bogus numbers. The Fed has ensured that no matter how crazy things get on the inflation front, the CPI will be below 3 percent, thanks to hedonic pricing, substitution and other creative shenanigans. And valuations based on estimated operating earnings are another trick to make things appear better than they are. Historical PEs are always based in trailing reported earnings Also, the root causes of a bear market might play out very well when you are in a secular bull and on the verge of entering the first cyclical bear-market of the secular bear trend. But are they so clear-cut during the secular bear-market? Do cyclical bears have to end in a bang rather than a whimper? I have my doubts. It would be interesting to see if we do make the high 1200's this year and Brinker is able to call a proper exit from the markets. If he can do it, that would be great. I wish he can do it, but I don't think he can. So let's see.

To: davidk555 who wrote (21940)	3/17/2005 6:48:03 PM
From: Tim Bagwell	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

David, I attended the Saturday event in San Francisco and the questions appear to be very similar to what you reported. Thanks for your post. It was interesting to see Brinker in person. After the Q&A session he met one on one with people in the lounge of the theater. I wanted to talk to him but the line was long and didn't move at all for 20 minutes so I gave up. KGO did a poor job in running this portion of the appearance. Ed Baxter did give him a question about the QQQ(Q) CTR trade. Many in the audience chuckled at the question but a few people made loud moans and groans. Brinker responded to the groans by trying to make a joke and laugh it off. He would only say that the trade was a mistake and that it will never happen again (meaning that he will no longer give short term calls to subscribers). That was it. No apology and no real explanation. It was clear from the audience reaction that many, many people were not only familiar with the QQQ(Q) trade, but probably got caught in it. I can't say that I was overly impressed with the appearance. Much of it was just what you would hear on a typical weekend radio show. Brinker did give one observation about oil that I thought was interesting. His take on the oil situation is that higher oil prices are actually anti-inflationary since they take money out of the economy which slows the growth rate. Brinker says that the one thing that worries him most about the market is that growth starts to overheat. As long as the growth rate is moderate then he thinks the market will continue to do well. So oil actually helps to keep growth from overheating which leads to a more healthy stock market. That view goes pretty much against the conventional wisdom of the talking heads. Brinkers view on the current market is still bullish. He expects that the market can sustain P/E's as high as 18 or 19 before the cyclical bull winds down. I've been very critical of Brinker over the last years but it was interesting to finally see him in person. His appearance was for a good cause and, although he still owes us an explanation about the QQQ(Q) fiasco, at least he has finally faced some public scorn for it. If he wasn't sure before, he now knows it remains a touchy subject for many.