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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (61065)	3/16/2005 11:52:50 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hold your wallet, Dude! <Bombardier has been one of Ottawa's biggest corporate welfare bums, getting almost $800 million in taxpayer money since 1982, according to John Williamson, federal director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.> maisonneuve.org

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (61065)	3/16/2005 4:15:34 PM
From: croesus1111	Respond to of 74559

"For example,some people, like me, say that world oil production is decreasing and bound to continue decreasing. Others believe that recent high prices are simply part of the price oscillation that oil has always displayed and the exhaustion of reserves is just an everrepeated fable." There are some nuances. For example, the cheap oil may have peaked, but the hard-to-get oil (like oil sands) has not, so it is possible that oil production may increase, but at increased cost. In any case, the price of oil will rise in the long term, barring a long and deep international recession (which is possible). The big problem is timing. When? If you want to buy Exxon, I think you can be pretty confident that it will be higher in ten years. But I don't know, and I don't think anyone else does, what Exxon is going to do in the next two years. So the problem, to return to the discussion about majority/minority views, is to find an out-of-favor market sector that gives you a favorable risk/reward ratio. Oil and gas is clearly not an out-of-favor market sector at this point. Also, after the run-up in the past several years, it doesn't seem to provide a good risk/reward ratio. But everyone needs to make their own judgment on that. At this point, I think the junior precious metals market provides some beaten-down stocks with a good risk/reward profile in an out of favor sub-sector. Buy 'em when no one else wants 'em.