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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (28711)	3/16/2005 9:54:52 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

On the condo conversions, you may have noted my comments about the twenty year requirement on old Reagan era section 8 coming off, and even those rattier properties are now being converted. The best examples I saw of that were close to 200 units, along the riverfront in downtown Portland. Just piling into to an old trade I'd say. Apparently the GM news is widening credit spreads this AM, this house of cards doesn't need that. I'm noticing that the subprime lenders like NEW and LEND are still under tremendous pressure. I'm wondering if the big junk mortgage cohort of 03-04 is now ripening enough to create more credit problems? The homebuilders keep trying to rally back, but seem to get cut down pretty quickly so far. This would be a logical day for the Fed to get aggressive and try and support things. They replaced a 9.5 repo with 7.25, and a 4.0 TIO goes off. So there is a hole, let's see if they finally do a coupon pass today (with the market holding together fairly well, it has that smell?), then watch the commodity market and USD (Pinocchio effect) if they do. There are 13.25 in repos maturing Thurs, so we should get some clues then as well. The fed funds ny.frb.org and T-bills are just taking rates higher, so to keep things in check they really need to start printing. This economy is addicted to 15% hyperinflationary liquidity growth, and it ain't getting that much, heroin withdrawal.