To: Road Walker who wrote (224490 ) 3/16/2005 8:13:03 PM From: Jim McMannis Respond to of 1571757 The real problems are much more immediate than you think.... AND the GM pension fund can tap earnings to pay out promises....portfolios.abcnews.go.com GM Cuts '05 Earns Outlook Up to 80 Pct. 03/16/2005 12:49:42 DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp. <GM.N> on Wednesday warned its 2005 earnings will come in as much as 80 percent below its prior forecast, reflecting lower auto sales and production in North America and rising U.S. health-care costs. "GM North America is, simply put, our 800 pound gorilla, and today's announcement shows how important it is that we get this business right," Chairman and Chief Executive Rick Wagoner, told analysts and reporters on a conference call. The world's largest carmaker also said it expects to post a first-quarter loss, compared with its prior forecast to break even or post a profit in the quarter. The warning knocked shares of GM down 11 percent to 12-1/2 year lows in early morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange and drove other auto stocks lower as well. The automaker said it now sees full-year earnings of about $1.00 to $2.00 per share, excluding special items, down from its previous target of $4.00 to $5.00 a share. The company forecast a first-quarter loss of about $1.50 per share, excluding any special items. Previously it had targeted breaking even or being profitable for the quarter. David Cole, director of the Center for Automotive Research, said he expects others in the auto industry to have similar problems. "This will not be the only company where you're going to see this kind of comment," he said. Higher fuel and raw material prices, such as steel, were creating a "perfect storm with a confluence of a large number of factors that are causing severe pressure across the entire industry" and particularly hurting companies like GM, he added. GM said its previous outlook was based on North American vehicle-production volume of 1.25 million vehicles, but since then production schedules have been reduced by about 70,000 vehicles and the pricing environment has been more competitive than expected in North America. "While we have made good progress in reducing costs over the last several years, the projected loss in North America reinforces our need to do much more, particularly in the area of health care," said GM Chief Financial Officer John Devine in a statement. "One of the issues we've had for North America is the increasing drag or health-care costs on North American profitability," Devine added on the conference call with Wagoner. "I don't have any silver bullets on heath care ... but clearly I think the weakening profitability this year has focused on our need to make progress on health care." GM, the largest private provider of health care in the United States, had already warned earlier that its medical expenses would increase by about $1 billion this year. The company said it also expects negative operating cash flow in 2005 of about $2 billion, before its settlement with Italian automaker Fiat and its GM Europe restructuring, versus the previous target of positive $2 billion. GM cited lower volumes and decreased net income at GM North America. The earnings revision may put downward pressure on GM's credit ratings, which hover precariously close to "junk" status. Debt from GM, one of the largest U.S. corporate debt issuers, has recently traded at junk levels. Standard & Poor's in January affirmed GM's senior debt rating at "BBB-minus," one notch above junk, but said it was considering changing the company's stable outlook by mid-year, if not sooner. Analyst Scott Sprinzen declined immediate comment. Moody's Investors Service rates GM "Baa2," one notch higher, with a "negative" outlook. It rates the debt of General Motors Acceptance Corp. "Baa1," which is one notch above "Baa2." Analyst Bruce Clark declined immediate comment. Fitch Ratings in October cut GM and GMAC debt to "BBB" with a negative outlook. Its analysts could not immediately be reached. GM's stock fell $3.77 to $29.95 in early trading on the New York Stock Exchange, its lowest point in more than 12 years.