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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vendit™ who wrote (6690)	3/17/2005 9:48:33 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8752

You mean downside price targets? Really, the same ones: first the lower BB rail (currently 36.64) will get pushed open, then the 200 sma (currently 36.53) will be broken (it was just touched intraday yesterday, within 0.01 today). stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][pd20,2!b200][vc60]&pref=G Next, the lower rail of the medium term (15 week) regression channel that defines the duration of the current medium term correction will be broken; by the time QQQQ gets down there, that rail will probably be just above 35: 139.142.147.218 Also, by that time the lower rail of the long term (129 weeks) regression channel that defines the long-term uptrend will be tested, and probably briefly broken for 1 or at most 2 weekly closes. 139.142.147.218 That should bring QQQQ to just under 35.00, quite likely the 34.93 level you identified. THERE is where QQQQ will find a bottom and reversal will occur. I don't think the $SOX will be finished with its correction by then, and will lag QQQQ by a month or two. During that period, QQQQ will not proceed sharply up, but will drift upwards and sideways and a bit more upwards. When the $SOX reverses, then we will see a powerful rally in QQQQ. So, we will not see a V-bottom reversal like we saw last August. Now of course, this will not all happen in one week. I think it will take about a month to 6 weeks, and during that time we will see periodic successful tests of support, just as we saw with the successful test of the 200 sma yesterday and today. But these will be short-lived. I can't see QQQQ closing above the 20 sma on this leg up. If there is a sharp, overdone selloff, then under those circumstances QQQQ could mount enough momentum to successfully break through the 20 sma temporarily before continuing down. But I don't think this is the case here. In other words, the only way QQQQ could gather enough momentum to drive it above the 20 sma is if it is rebounding from selling that is too much too soon. So what would I predict for next week? 1. Test of 20 sma resistance--- unsuccessful 2. Test of 200 sma support late in the week---failure. T