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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (25945)	3/18/2005 5:35:38 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

INFLATION SCARE Here is an interesting article about an inflation scare. The author has some interesting charts of the FRODOR. FOREIGN OFFICIAL DOLLAR RESERVES & THE DOLLAR The author thinks FRODOR is a great leading indicator of industrial commodity prices. It suggests they should soon peak. There are 13 pages but 3 and 4 are nearly blank. Keep on scrolling down for the charts. I almost missed them. oakltd.com Mish From Heinz: i know about the correlation and take it as an additional confirmation that a top is coming in this commodities cycle. note however, the remark coming with the last chart (higher prices coaxing forth additional supplies) is not appropriate....it takes far longer for new supplies in industrial commodities to hit the market (due to the long lead times in mine construction). rather, what will cause the top is the coming bust - and a big decline in DEMAND. it sure looks like it's time to abandon the commodities bull bandwagon. we'll probably get a surprisingly quick switch from INflation to DEflation scare....i give it 6 to 8 months (just a guess obviously).... gotta go...have a great weekend!