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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (28922)	3/18/2005 6:04:46 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

fleck on the metals Yesterday, I don't think I did an adequate job of explaining why I have less angst about my metals positions than it seems many readers do (judging by the emails I have received). To clarify my views: I have long believed that the dollar was headed for trouble due to our financial imbalances, as I've discussed. Another reason for my bullishness on the metals: I have thought that at some point, we would see the twin busts of the real-estate market and the stock market, which would take the economy down. And, along the lines of how I began today's Rap, I have also felt that the troubles I see may at some point cause real problems inside the financial system itself. Consequently, as we experience "the next time down," I believe that will provide foreigners additional reasons to become bearish on the dollar. Since this is all happening at a moment in time when foreigners are starting to become predisposed to sell anyway, the potential for real financial turmoil is extraordinarily high. I believe that in a period such as that, the metals will do especially well, and I can now see the problems beginning to coalesce. Therefore, I am less concerned about the day-to-day movements of gold silver than I may have been in the past. Why? Because finally, the big problems that have always seemed faraway now appear to be closer at hand -- such that they may soon start to become discounted and therefore be supportive of higher metals' prices. I am not going to get shaken out of my metals position because gold decides to drop $10 or $15 as we approach the point where we need to own it more than we ever did before.