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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (25965)	3/18/2005 6:49:36 PM
From: TH	Respond to of 116555

mish, Half would be around 15,000. I do not expect this number to actually be looking for work. What I expect to happen is if C&A is really going to go belly-up, then secret deals will be made between the big players to buy up many of their plants and tool shops. Those facilities will just keep running like nothing has happened. Only the names on the door will change. There is a reason it has to be this way. There is no way the OEM's could keep production running if a C&A were to shut down. For example, last year Peake Plastics went belly-up (such a good thing as the owner was complete ass. Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy <ng>). Overnight two or three competitors of Peake picked up massive amounts of "new" business. In that case many jobs were lost as the main plant of Peake was not an attractive take-over target. The amount of work at C&A is just too large to find new homes for existing business overnight. Thus, we can expect that certain facilities will be purchased and those employees will retain their jobs. Too many unknowns at this point, but it is safe to say that many jobs will be lost. Property values are going to get wacked hard this year. I can smell it, and my real estate buddy has been tracking key neighborhoods and price trends on specific houses. The data is not good. Add in some OEM layoffs, some Tier One and Two layoffs, then the domino layoffs at all the lower tier support companies, and you will see some migration from the Detroit area and serious bubble popping in mid level housing. Sidenote: I just visited my friends new house today. It is in a posh suburb called Franklin (home to the recently departed Max Fisher and still living Mitch Albaum). I teased him that he got a hell of deal for $485K. He just laughed and said his 4200 sf was a bit higher. How much higher I pondered? He said it was good to buy the cheapest house on the block, so at 850K he got a good deal. 850K does not buy what it used to. His property tax is more than my house payment and property tax. I just don't know how people do it. I couldn't sleep at night. Have a good weekend. TH