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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly Buy and Sell Set Ups -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quehubo who wrote (2867)	3/19/2005 9:38:49 AM
From: chowder	Respond to of 13449

>>> I expect energy to be just as hot over the next few years. <<< Que, you may be right and I'm not disputing that. The energy sector saw some institutional selling recently. Every break down of a trend starts with institutional selling. I saw a lot of energy stocks drop below the 20 day moving average and come down to the 50. The 50 day moving average will often times determine whether a change in the trend comes about or if the trend continues. My shorting strategy was based on prices dropping below the 50 day moving average. I had one trade that saw the price drop below the 50 dma and I shorted it. Before the day ended, the price turned around and closed back up above the 50 dma. I ended up closing that trade for a 1.9% loss. I am not short anything in energy right now. A lot of energy stocks are moving back up and approaching their 20 day moving averages. I am willing to go long if those moves above the 20 are made with conviction. I am also willing to go short if the price reverses and drops below the 50. I'm not making a market directional call. I'm willing to buy strength or short weakness. Because I'm willing to play either side of the market, (long or short), it doesn't matter to me which way the market goes. I just wish it would go for a longer period of time, in one direction or the other, instead of up one day, down another. FWIW, the OIH chart isn't what I would call bullish right here. I don't own any oil service stocks so I don't have to worry about protecting profits but, this isn't a very encouraging chart. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[d20041219,20050319][pb50!b20!f][vc60][iut!Lah10,30,5!Lc20]&pref=G The XNG is in much better shape. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[d20041219,20050319][pb50!b20!f][vc60][iut!Lah10,30,5!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G dabum PS - For those of you who don't know Quehubo, he's enjoyed a very successful run in energy. He works in the utilities field and is very knowledgeable about the industry. I have a lot of respect for him and his views and he hangs out in Big Dog's Boom Boom Room. Big Dog is another man who I have a lot of respect for. He's in the oil industry and I used to subscribe to his Oil View's newsletter several years ago when oil was down to $5 per barrel. He started making so much money he didn't have time to continue his letter. Now he travels the world and chases women. PSS - Big Dog and Que have combined to develop a web site that features fundamental analysis on the energy stocks complete with analysts views and other sources. Perhaps Que will post that link for anyone who might have an interest in energy and wishes to check the fundamentals. Being a technical guy, I don't have the link.