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Pastimes : 2005 NCAA College Basketball March Madness -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeffrey S. Mitchell who wrote (76)	3/19/2005 4:30:54 AM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209

Hi Jeff, The odds on submitting a perfect entry are something like a trillion to one. Of course that means accounting for every single possibility, including the possibility that all four 16th seeded teams will make it to the Final Four. The reality is, however, that the odds come down significantly simply by "betting" that all four 16th seeded teams and all four 15th seeded teams won't advance to the second round. The odds drop by a factor of 256. One can further reduce the odds by selectively "picking" the winners of the games involving teams seeded 11 through 14. That's where most of the biggest upsets occur anyway. Teams seeded from about 8 through 11 are roughly of the same skill sets and abilities, and therefore cannot really be distinguished between being labeled as an upset versus the possibility of a mis-seeding by the committee. Think about this year's first round results. I don't think that the majority of contestants gave Vermont or Bucknell much of a chance. I think that Wisconsin-Mil was a "predictable" possible upset. I know I thought long and hard about that one before making the wrong choice. (DOH!!!) My point is that while the true odds of submitting a perfect entry are around a trillion to one, the practical odds are a whole lot less. In your example of considering only the first round games, presuming losses by all 8 teams seeded 15 or 16 drops the odds down to 16,777,215 to 1 (dividing your odds by 256). Of the remaining 24 games, an entrant needs only to correctly identify another 12 games to drop the odds down to 4095 to 1. Of course, the whole thing is easier said than done... <g> EK!!!