Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quehubo who wrote (40432)	3/19/2005 2:30:37 PM
From: chowder	Respond to of 206323

>>> I wonder what the charts were saying the week before PTEN climbed from $19 to $26? <<< I can answer that. The chart was saying uncertainty existed at the time. The price was sitting between the 50 and 20 day moving averages. MACD which measures trend was positive. Money flows were negative. The trend was up but price was wrestling with resistance. It was a clear case of uncertainty from a technical point of view. Here is the chart at that time: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[d20041119,20050120][pb50!b20!f][vc60][iut!Lah10,30,5!Lc20]&pref=G Five days later we had that same uncertainty! Almost identical indicators. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[d20041119,20050125][pb50!b20!f][vc60][iut!Lah10,30,5!Lc20]&pref=G It was two weeks later where the pedal met the metal from a technical point of view and I wrote a message to Buck about this at the time. PTEN broke above resistance and pulled back. I recall telling Buck that it was the test of the support level that would signal an entry in PTEN. The test: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[d20041119,20050130][pb50!b20!f][vc60][iut!Lah10,30,5!Lc20]&pref=G The follow through over the next month. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[d20041219,20050225][pb50!b20!f][vc60][iut!Lah10,30,5!Lc20]&pref=G There's no question that those who rely on FA had the move correct. Those that follow the TA had the timing correct. dabum

To: quehubo who wrote (40432)	3/19/2005 2:33:47 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206323

Que, "I wonder what the charts were saying the week before PTEN climbed from $19 to $26?" From a trend following point of view I can tell you exactly. On 1/26 the stock gave a signal to go neutral (from its previous downtrending signal), this would mean close shorts, close out puts and put structures. On 1/28 at the open it gave a buy signal (or you could have taken the one 2 days later, on 2/1) as it broke above the previous fractal set up on 1/21 at 19.45. On 2/10 an add-to buy signal was given (at 20.78). On 2/24 a further add-to buy signal was given (at 24.79). On 3/4 a further add to buy signal was given (at 25.83). On 3/10 an exit signal (note, not "sell")was given (at 24.44). [Note, many trend followers will combine signals with certain % stops, for example hard stops at 5% off a trading high; such a trailing stop would have triggered at 24.64 allowing for the following gains: 24.64/19.45 +26.7% 24.64/20.78 +18.6% 24.64/24.79 -1.6% 24.64/25.83 -4.5% If you assume equal positions, then it's easy to calculate total gains. Many traders will add in increments of 1/2 an original position though, when a trend is working out, so that Position one is 2,000 shares, Position two is 1,000 shares, Position three is 500 shares (with 500 shares probably being the minimum), which would yield a better final profit position. As to the future, if PTEN closes down on Monday or any day after without taking out the 3/4 fractal, a sell signal will be given. If PTEN continues to rise, a buy signal will be given when the stock trades above 26. The question here is not % returns, though, but % returns measured against some feeling for risk. As we all discovered in 1998 and 1999, not having a good feeling for the risk of a play is the biggest gamble of all. Kb