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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (28974)	3/20/2005 5:51:56 AM
From: shades	Respond to of 110194

In bubbles past - say the south seas or tulip mania or japanese real estate - where did the masses try to move into as they rushed for the exits? I read one report in the 1929 depression that those who owned canning factories and shoe repair businesses had went broke before the collapse but became very wealthy during the depression. Of course this was in an america that did not have unlimited human labor in china that could send shoes over for free.

To: ild who wrote (28974)	3/21/2005 1:27:44 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

This Week: March 21, 2005 Don't Discount Discounted Dividends Using an optimistic version of the dividend discount model, if we assume that the current overvaluation is relieved gradually over a period of 10 years, and that the required return on stocks continues to decline (resulting in higher justified valuations) the probable real return over the coming decade still works out to roughly zero, and the probable nominal total return on the S&P 500 over the coming decade is approximately 2-3%. For readers of these weekly comments, that's starting to become a familiar range. By John P. Hussman, Ph.D. hussmanfunds.com