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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gush who wrote (6815)	3/20/2005 7:27:22 PM
From: Vendit™	Respond to of 8752

Good evening Gush, Your observation is a good one about the Bollinger bands. Expansion as a rule means a “continuation of trend”. The current trend is down. I also see that in the charts that I studied today and posted in The Market Wind newsletter. Look at the last chart on the page linked here: themarketwind.com The Qubes are at a critical juncture as of Friday’s close and could go either way. I made the call that the evidence was weighted for a bounce at this particular support level because there are numerous technical indicators that convince me that will be the case. A word of caution for anyone who reads this post or my newsletter: Never try to pick an exact bottom or an exact top. If I were you I would wait to see if the fast stochastic lines confirm the new up-trend as well as if the support line at 36.39-36.46 holds before you make an entry. If support fails then the entire analysis will change. Reid

To: Gush who wrote (6815)	3/20/2005 7:55:40 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8752

Hi DaGushman, Yes, as anticipated the lower BB rail has been pushed down and has now opened somewhat (from 1.3 to 1.6). But it is still very contracted: stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][pd20,2!b50][vc60][iLyb20,2.0]&pref=G And yes, I think there is a lot of indication that we will now see a relief rally. That said, we haven't seen the last of the BB expansion to the downside. I think the likely scenario is a rally, slight contraction of the BBs, then QQQQ will blow that lower rail open much wider as it fails at the support levels outlined in many previous posts. Regarding the relief rally, there are other resistance levels, and I don't think QQQQ will get anywhere near $38.29 on this relief rally. First stop is the 20 sma ($37.29). I think that is a likely reversal point. But there is a lot of important economic news out this week, much of it expected to be good. So there is a chance QQQQ might have enough momentum to make it through the 20 sma. If so, there is the descending 50 sma at $37.53. After that, there is trendline resistance just above at about $37.60 or so. I can't see QQQQ getting any higher than that. But remember, there is a zone of very heavy resistance beginning at about $38.01 that has convincingly turned back some fairly good rallies in QQQQ. If QQQQ gets that high, it will be pretty overbought, and momentum very likely exhausted, so I see no way for QQQQ to make it up to $38.29, even on an intraday basis. If long QQQQ, and if it trades above the 20 sma, I think a stop just under the 20 sma would be wise. ....all IMHO, of course. T