Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (29038)	3/21/2005 12:02:17 PM
From: Mannie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

European Central Bank Say It's `Concerned' About Easing of Deficit Limits ECB `Seriously Concerned' About Looser Deficit Limits (Update1) March 21 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank said it is ``seriously concerned' about finance ministers' decision yesterday to ease limits on budget deficits in the dozen countries that use the euro. ``Sound fiscal policies and a monetary policy geared to price stability are fundamental for the success' of the euro, the Frankfurt-based ECB said today on its Web site. In a separate e- mailed statement, the Bundesbank said the changes to the rules ``diminish the incentive to follow a solid budgetary policy.' European finance ministers last night agreed to let countries using the euro top the deficit ceiling of 3 percent of gross domestic product when growth is slower than forecast or ``relevant factors,' such as Germany's costs for rebuilding its ex-communist East, force up spending. Germany, which insisted on the rule before the euro's debut in 1999, has breached it for three years. Germany, France and Italy say they need more room to increase spending or cut taxes to revive their economies, which have trailed the U.S. for 12 of the past 13 years. Europe's growth stagnated at 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter and the German and Italian economies, which make up half the 12-nation $10 trillion euro region, contracted. Unemployment in Germany rose to a postwar record of 5.22 million in February, a rate of 11.7 percent. Rate Risk The ECB has warned that a looser deficit pact may fuel inflation, forcing up interest rates. ``Changing the pact could push up borrowing costs in all countries in the union,' ECB council member and Bundesbank President Axel Weber said in an interview last week. ``It is essential that all parties concerned fulfill their respective responsibilities,' the bank said today. ``The public and the markets can trust that the governing council remains firmly committed to deliver on its mandate of maintaining price stability.' The ECB has left its benchmark interest rate at 2 percent, a six-decade low, since June 2003 to boost growth. ``Everybody knows that whatever happens the ECB will deliver price stability,' ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said on March 14. ``But our life would be totally different' when policy makers change the pact. The bank aims to keep the annual pace of consumer price increases in the euro region just under 2 percent. Inflation Accelerates Inflation in the euro area accelerated to 2.1 percent in February, the European statistics office said today, as the cost of oil surged 38 percent this year. The ECB said this month that average inflation this year will fall below the bank's 2 percent limit for the first time in five years in 2005. ``I don't think the ECB will tighten or even bring forward tightening, but it does reinforce their bias,' said Ian Stewart, chief European economist at Merrill Lynch & Co. in London. Loosening the pact puts ``an upside risk to rates in the medium and longer term.' The euro fell against the dollar today, weakening to $1.3182 at 4:48 p.m. in Frankfurt, compared with $1.3326 on Friday. ``The markets could punish them in some way after yesterday's decision,' said Luigi Speranza, an economist at BNP Paribas SA in London. ``These factors that permit countries to exceed the 3 percent threshold are too vague.' Europe has outpaced the U.S. only once since 1991. That was in 2001, when the euro region expanded 1.6 percent and the Sept. 11 attacks contributed to reducing U.S. growth to 0.8 percent, according to EU figures. Greek Record Germany and France have exceeded the deficit limit since 2002. Figures showing Italy at the limit in 2004 may be revised higher, the EU statistics office said last week. Greece posted a 6.1 percent deficit in 2004, the highest of any country in the currency's six-year life. Dominating the debate was Germany's demand that the EU acknowledge the costs of subsidizing the eastern states following unification in 1990 as the leading strain on German public finances. To meet that demand, the EU decided that spending on the ``unification of Europe' could be used to excuse excessive deficits ``if it has a detrimental effect on the growth and the fiscal burden of a member state.' Under the existing rules, countries could only expect leniency if their economies contracted by an annual rate of 2 percent. Finance ministers said that was ``too restrictive,' and instead agreed that exceptions could include ``a negative growth rate' or ``a protracted period of very low growth.' Five Years' Grace In a further concession, the EU agreed to give countries with excessive deficits two years to get back under the limit, renewable for two more years. Since the EU takes a year to act on national budgets, that would effectively allow deficits to stay above the limit for five years. EU government leaders will ratify the accord at a Brussels summit on March 22-23 and give the European Commission, the EU's executive agency, the job of rewriting the legal texts that make up the stability pact. German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, fighting rising unemployment and falling popularity, last week upped the pressure for more lenient enforcement of the stability pact by announcing corporate tax cuts, even as Germany's deficit risks exceeding the 3 percent limit for the fourth year in 2005. His Finance Ministry said today that the government is still targeting a deficit of 2.9 percent of GDP this year. ``This will not be changed by the accord reached yesterday,' spokesman Stefan Giffeler told reporters in Berlin. France also needed to come away from the Brussels meetings with a victory to shore up sagging support for the EU's planned constitution in the runup to a May 29 referendum. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is promising tax cuts, which he first pledged in 2001, before next year's national election. ``From a bond manager's perspective this is not a good combination,' said Andrew Bosomworth, a fund manager at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Munich. ``They didn't save when times were good and now they are asking for more room to spend when times are bad.'

To: mishedlo who wrote (29038)	3/21/2005 1:32:24 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

The national stats mask the trends in most markets outside of the coastal bubble markets. No doubt the appreciation in many areas has just postponed the inevitable and will make the downside more severe than what is currently being experienced in flyover country. _______________________________________________________ Texas is No. 1 in home foreclosures D-FW area had nearly a third of forced sales in 2004, stats show 08:57 PM CST on Thursday, March 10, 2005 Texas is known as the land of oil wells, longhorn cattle and wide open spaces. Unfortunately, the state is also recognized as the foreclosure capital of the country. And you thought our yeehaw, Wild West image was tough to overcome? How about the fact that more than 32,000 Texas homes went through foreclosure last year? That's 75 percent more than second-place Georgia and more than three times the foreclosure rate in Florida, according to statistics from Foreclosure.com, which tracks home default listings in several major U.S. markets. The Dallas-Fort Worth area accounted for more than 10,000 of the Texas home foreclosures, Foreclosure Listing Service reports. Also, here the top states in Foreclosure listings in 2004: Texas 32,108 Georgia 18,345 Ohio 17,658 Michigan 15,640 N. Carolina 15,233 Indiana 14,853 Tennessee 10,595 Illinois 10,501 Pennsylvania 10,267 Florida 7,986 ___________________________________________________________ 2004 Foreclosures Climb By Christine Tatum Denver Post Staff Writer Tuesday, January 04, 2005 DENVER - More than 12,100 homes in six of seven metro counties fell into foreclosure in 2004, an increase of 30 percent over the previous year. Last year's foreclosures reached the highest level since 1988, when 17,122 were recorded after the oil-and-gas industry's bust. Risky loan strategies, such as no-money-down loans, and a year of low housing appreciation contributed to the rise, experts say. The rising number of foreclosures stands in contrast to the overall market for homes, which set records in 2004. Front Range home resales reached an all-time high of 54,012; the total price paid for homes was $14.3 billion, up 18 percent. Foreclosures are a lagging economic indicator, often coming several months after homeowners have lost jobs and exhausted means to hold on to their homes, said Mary Schaefer, public trustee for Jefferson County. She predicts foreclosures will hold steady this year, or perhaps rise slightly. "There aren't a lot of new jobs, and it's not a home seller's market, so people who need to sell their homes quickly can't always get enough money out of them to avoid the process," she said. "I know we're supposed to be in a recovery, but I don't see an end to this right now." Public trustees in Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Denver, Douglas and Jefferson counties on Monday reported 12,132 foreclosures for 2004, up from 9,333 in 2003. Foreclosures in the six counties for the fourth quarter alone are up 14 percent over the fourth quarter of 2003. Figures for Broomfield County were not available. Arapahoe County posted the biggest jump for the year - a rise of 39 percent over 2003. Foreclosures there have risen steadily since 1995, public trustee Mary Wenke said. At the close of business Monday, Wenke said her office had received 125 foreclosure filings to start off the new year. Wenke said a cursory review of last year's foreclosures suggest that a "substantial number" of lenders and borrowers have acted irresponsibly. She said dozens of foreclosures processed by the end of 2004 were for properties purchased early last year. Wenke also noted that "an alarmingly high number" of owners "slipped in and out of foreclosure at least twice on the same property" last year. Figuring prominently in many foreclosures are adjustable-rate mortgages and second lines of credit, she said. [...] Comment: In another article about the Denver area, we found the following comment: Mary Wenke, public trustee for Arapahoe County, is seeing the same trend. "They just keep escalating," she said. "We opened 40 (foreclosures) in one day. They never seem to be leveling off for any period of time. We could probably easily go over 3,200 this year (in Arapahoe County), maybe 3,300." __________________________________________________________ Foreclosures up in county By Douglas Sams doug.sams@gwinnettdailypost.com LAWRENCEVILLE — Residential foreclosures in Gwinnett rose almost 40 percent in December from the same time a year ago, according to the real estate tracking service Foreclosure.com. Gwinnett’s new foreclosures reached 176 last month versus 108 in December 2003, the Boca Raton, Fla.-based firm said. Georgia had 2,120 newly foreclosed residential properties for sale compared to 34,446 in the United States. Overall, it was a busy year outside the Gwinnett Justice and Administration Center, where foreclosed properties are publicly auctioned each month. Gwinnett had 5,130 properties in foreclosure in 2004, the most in the past four years and the third highest total in metro Atlanta, behind only Fulton and DeKalb, according to Marietta-based real estate tracking firm Equisystems. Meanwhile, mortgage rates across the United States continued to fall, opening new doors for home buyers. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of mortgage rates released Thursday showed that rates on 30-year, fixed rate mortgages averaged 5.77 percent for the week ending Jan. 6. That was down from last week’s 5.81 percent. For all of 2004, rates on benchmark 30-year mortgages averaged 5.84 percent, second only to last year’s 5.83 percent, the lowest annual rate in Freddie Mac’s record keeping. Low mortgage rates have powered home sales. Analysts believe sales hit a record high for all of 2004. The housing market is expected to post another good year in 2005, analysts said. Long-term mortgage rates have remained well-behaved even as the Federal Reserve has boosted short-term interest rates five times in 2004. That’s because inflation, while creeping higher, is not currently viewed as an immediate danger to the economy, analysts said. ‘‘Economic news seems to reflect steady growth and low inflation, placing little upward pressure on interest rates,’’ said Amy Crews Cutts, Freddie Mac’s deputy chief economist. ___________________________________________________________