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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: schzammm who wrote (23019)	3/21/2005 10:19:21 PM
From: A Horse With No Name	Respond to of 108572

good point schzammm. china always has the option to revalue its currency, a thing the US has been imploring it to do(i sense another conspirational theory coming up now), and this problem could be contained.

To: schzammm who wrote (23019)	3/23/2005 11:44:27 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 108572

["Which is it Slider and which comes first. I am getting a bit confused. Are you buying the energy sector or shorting."] That's actually a very valid point & a good question. ...croseus & jimsioi will love this answer: I am "$traddling" Oil ~ Straddling mainly via options. Volatility is the only High Reward:Low/Moderate Risk call here. As we've seen again today...with Inventory Levels reaching their highest levels in years.... Crude Oil has disconnected from the underlying fundamentals. The "real world" fundamentals such as today's inventory build indicate $35ish Oil. The Geopolitical & Economic policy convergence with Oil arriving at the crossroads as a conventient "vehicle" for both the NeoCons & Greenspan....indicates the efficacy of Oil being artifically driven thru $80ish on a temporary basis. So in the meantime: Take what the market speculators and the fundamental disconnect are giving you: Volatility~ Bulls make money, Bears make Money...Pigs get Fat & Hogs get Slaughtered. Indeed; the time has arrived to perhaps become a $traddler ~ - a Pig $traddler I am Shorting Oilpatch "shares" into weakness...and then when I close my shorts and take some profits - I take a portion (20-50%) of those profits and buy some out of the money Calls & LEAP calls. When & if; Oil becomes a "vehicle" of either the NeoCons and/or Greenspan...and it is artifically ramped higher ...I will take profits in my Calls & LEAPS and then take a portion of the profits...and buy some far under the money PUTs & LEAP PUTs at significant discounts. - keeping a moving straddle in place...with a downward/fundamental bias. What happens in the Bond Market, with Interest Rates and Geopolitically & Economically within China...will dictate the bias. But; Oil is only 10-15% of my portfolio here. Still 40-50% Cash for trading flexibility. Still Short - Fannie, Mortgage Mkt,Homebuilders, Bonds, broad market to the tune of 20-25%. Long Gold/PM's - 20% Slowly building a long position in alterntive Energy plays - 5%ish Long and patiently adding on weakness...."this" is where the real longterm upside leverage to "Energy" will be....not Oil....and "this" is the single concept most lost on Oil PermaBulls from the Old School - New Paradigm of Peak Oil... Stay skeptical & stay cynical off everything that is being spoon fed to us from the pundits. We are entering very dangerous times...Geopolitically AND Economically. good luck all` PS: Roebear. - that Horn scared the $h!^ out of my dog... had my speakers set wayyyyyy too loud.