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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Spekulatius who wrote (20919)3/22/2005 1:59:40 AM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78661
 
AIG. I'm holding on to my small position. Most of my recent buys were in '03 at prices between $56.53 and $59.72. I also made two very small buys in '04 at $60.84 and $69.90 (What possessed me?). I'm a little hesitant now, but I'll likely add if stock drops around $55+ level.

Not often can you get this stock under 2x book. Psr is relatively good too. Very good net profit margins every year - maybe those results will continue. I don't like historical and current ROE though: should be higher than 13%-15% if one has to pay up-- 2x book value-- for the stock. OTOH, you get one behemoth business - increasing book value, international presence, 86,000 employees. All just my evaluation and opinion, and I could continue to be wrong.



To: Spekulatius who wrote (20919)4/1/2005 11:38:43 AM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78661
 
AIG: The revelations about AIG make it too tough for me to add to my few shares. I understand financial machinations to smooth earnings, but the outside entities controlled and run by Mr. Greenberg and other AIG execs or ex-execs - how they affect earnings, how they maybe drain earnings from AIG (public shareholders) to themselves, how legal all this is or isn't - it's just not worth stepping into this unknown by buying AIG shares at this new annual low.

The BOD - these high profile people - don't seem to have a handle on AIG's business. Who does? I wonder about the guy Mr. Greenberg picked to succeed him. Is he aware of all these machinations. If not, how knowledgeable can he be about running the business?

Understanding insurance businesses is such an esoteric thing, imo. Reading the Wall Street Stories about Mr Greenberg and his apparently imperial ways, is dismaying to me. Perhaps if one holds AIG shares, it's best not knowing some details. Maybe like they say about sausage: you want to eat it and enjoy it - you don't want to see how it's made.