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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (61240)	3/22/2005 9:28:24 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

The EU has been expanding rapidly, and will be getting Ukraine (which has a huge land area), probably Moldova. An inclusion of Turkey is a fork in the road - ** On the plus side, it could lead to the economc integration of a number of Turkic speaking countries(Turkemistan, etc.) with resources and growing popultaions. It is also obviously a bridge to the Middle East, including Iraq, Iran, Syria, and others. The cost side - So far all EU countries have had a Christian history - including a Muslim country will decrease future EU solidarity, which will tend to limit the EU to economic matters. It would make an aggresive foreign policy much more difficult, and thus limit challenges to US power. It will also tie the EU into investing and risking more to stabalize and economically integrate the Middle East, picking up some of the burden from the US...while the US maintains maximum leverage in the Gulf area. * If Turkey is NOT included, they will look more to the US. There has already been talk of some form of NAFTA lite which could embrace Turkey... ******** Glad to see some people at the CFR and State are earnig their pay....;-)

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (61240)	3/22/2005 9:50:21 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

USD as a loser..I estimate we might see gold at 3000 - but not at 10,000. That's about a 4: or 7:1 drop. Roughly 260 miilion ounces of gold. Total US Currency in Circulation is about 800 Billion - So roughly 3,000 would back every bill with gold. Total US Debt is about 5 Trillion - which would lead a need for a much higher requirement, maybe >30,000 an ounce. Except the total amount of money that the FED has created from nothing is only about 750 Billion. Note how close this number is to the currency number. So all the rest of the USD in the world was created by loans... ^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Now let's flash back to the middle 1990s - The Clinton administration has a top Wall Street currency trader, Robert Rubin, runnig the Treasury... Enter the "Strong Dollar" Policy Gold gets down to $280 - gold mines shut down UK Treasury sells gold Argentina, being tied to the USD, enters a recession US banks buy Argintine banks at discount prices Hong Kong experiences a slow down (Jay can add comments) ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ This will take another decade to play out. My guess would be the dollar drops about 50-60% from here, but with lots of reversals. All those home loans become easier to pay off. US export industry returns - look at steel companies. The new head of the Federal Reserve thanks investors and countries around the world for financing the US at such favorable rates....