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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (29105)	3/22/2005 1:59:13 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

Remember in 2000 the indestructible fiber optic companies like JDSU and CIEN kept going up to new highs even after NASDAQ bust. I have no doubt there will be a bunch of Enron and Worldcon type news that comes out when the shit hits the fan. Always happens with serial acquirers, unlimited access to capital and seemingly everyone in the field filling up their pockets with lots of green at every turn. You have to ask yourself the question that with things so good and almost every builder continuing to borrow and show negative free cash flow what happens when things reverse. I am looking at shorting perhaps in a couple of months and like you question whether it is worth bothering with when there are so many other areas. Only one I am aware of that does a lot of those high rise expensive condos which is WCI in Florida. You are right those local builders building those condos in places like Miami, San Diego and Vegas are at most risk

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (29105)	3/23/2005 1:01:36 AM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

<Aren't they all better candiates than the homebuilders?> My understanding about the buildig industy is that it can absolutely DRY UP for years. Where will these stocks trade if THEY MADE NADA... that's what I would look at, cause I can't imagine they don't have some losing years coming up. Also, I don't know what you mean about big guys gobbling private builders... what are they going to gobble, some nice reputation with subtrades??? Some unused office leases for a new office? I don't get it? DAK PS: I don't know, maybe they have cash hoards... at least they SHOULD have after this run.