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Biotech / Medical : CoTherix (CTRX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rkrw who wrote (7)	3/22/2005 3:18:41 PM
From: tuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18

Oops, lost a zero, didn't I. $5 billion. >>Feb 22 2005 9:26AM ****** Cotherix (CTRX) Thomas Weisel initiates OUTPERFORM. Target $11. Firm notes that Ventavis, CTRX's lead product, was approved on Dec 29, for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension and that it is also being studied for PAH due to idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Firm believes that at an estimated annual price of $50,000 per patient, they estimate that the mkt potential for Ventavis is $2.8 bln. Firm expects the stock to be driven by Ventavis market share gains, the release of clinical data (Ventavis/Tracleer combination therapy in PAH (1H05) and Ventavis monotherapy in IPF (2H05)), and the potential announcement of a partner for CTX-100 in emphysema.<< Either TW figures market potential as the entire market -- including undiagnosed patients -- or they're counting the IPF population, as well. The numbers match for the former. Problem is, they don't give a more realistic estimate. If that's the price, and knowing how much easier Ventavis is to administer versus Flolan & company, I'd guess share capture would indeed be pretty quick though. The comment in today's PR about reimbursement suggests that, as well. If your assumption about CTRX using secondary money only to launch Ventavis is correct, then TW's assumption that CTRX will partner CTX-100 dovetails nicely with that. Wonder if we missed management actually commenting on this issue. However, having apparently stopped at PI, I doubt they'd get much for it. Wonder what they've spent on licensing it developing it to this point. I think I saw somewhere an estimate of profitability in 2008 (maybe a bit earlier on a quarterly basis?), but I might be confusing that with another company. However, they might go cash flow positive before that, and be in a position to inlicense something else. Next job: find IPF clinical data to date, and try to handicap successful outcome. If this stays cheap or gets cheaper into the summer . . . could be a good buy. Edit: I see there is a PII combo trial for PAH -- with Bosentan -- for which results are due any day: cotherix.com Might be cause to modify buying strategy: a chunk now, another chunk in the summer (maybe before the first full quarter of sales is in). Though the results of this trial may not move the stock that much . . . Cheers, Tuck