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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (26148)	3/22/2005 4:41:02 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Grain report First paragraph from Dave Megar Last two I believe are from Tim Flannigan who normally does the grain reports I post Some quick comments... The Brazilian bean crop is usually made by March 15th. After this point there is no further concern over crop damage. Not coincidentally the recent highs were made on the 16th. The funds who are fat with profits on longs are taking profits from that point until late this week going into month end. One might ask why profit-taking would not last throughout next week?... Because on Thursday, March 31st the USDA releases its prospective plantings report, which is expected to show less acres denoted to beans, so funds will likely stop selling by late this week and resume buying or at least ease selling by early next week prior to the prospective plantings report. From our grain analyst after Monday's close... Beans - Our weekly export inspection report came in at 19.7 m.b. inspected for near term export, down from 34.3 the week prior and four week average of 30. Clearly a sign of demand backing away from last weeks seven month high and an impending Brazilian harvest. I called for lower prices this week as funds bail on long positions taking month end profits early as next week looks to see them back long again ahead of the acreage report which everyone expects to show a decrease in acres to be planted. I gave first support at 6.40 then potential low of 6.24. Today's low was 6.25. 6.06 next support. For one month I have given the March 15th date as the last date for beans to trade higher on drought conditions in Brazil as even the latest planted beans would be done setting the pod and no heat or lack of rain could damage them. Well highs were at 6.914 on March 16th with a 66 cent sell off following. The key now is to find the week's low to buy ahead of next week's acreage report due for release on Thursday, March 31st at 7:30 a.m. central time. Corn - Note, this is a four day trading week as all markets are closed Friday. Our weekly export inspection report came out at 10:00 a.m. central time showing 26.6 million bushels of corn was inspected for near term export down from 28.9 the week prior, four week average of 29.5 and a year ago of 43.2 m.b. Last week's seven month high of 2.32 chased importers to the sidelines. Year to date inspections are 937 m.b. versus 1.043 billion bushels. We came in today with funds long over 40 thousand contracts and with only four days this week to take month end profits funds sold heavily. On Friday's weekly review I have first support at 2.17 then 2.10 as a low for this week. Today's low was 2.13. The question now is can 2.10 hold especially with the trade wanting to get short ahead of our March 31st planted acreage report. The pre-report trade guesses show a 2 to 4 m.a. increase. A close under 2.10 sets us up for new lows under 2.03, but I don not think we should go there ahead of the March 31st report.