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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (29179)	3/23/2005 11:07:59 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

When business sucks, everything trades WAY below replacement cost, so no one builds anything Right now business sucks and they keep building. A great misallocation of capitl due to articially low interest rates and the desperate sheep placing bets where it has worked lately. The oversupply this next downturn should easily surpass the last downturn that we are both familiar with.

To: LLCF who wrote (29179)	3/23/2005 4:47:27 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

<< in a down turn there IS NO MARKET, who cares about share?? The best builders are the ones who close down, and go on vacation!>> This is the key....in a bubble, liquidity seeks rising markets. When they roll over, bids dissolve, and there is nowhere this is more apparent than real estate. Offers completely disappear, meaning if there is forced liquidation, the seller is totally and completely farked...even in March/April/May 2000, you could still get something for those shares of Infospace or Sickamore.....which will be in complete contrast to the clowns who bought 5 McMansions hoping to flip 'em.....