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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (29185)	3/23/2005 9:21:20 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ, ever since it was pointed out by the fannie economists, I have been watching the MBAA apps from a different perspective. The purchase applications include a bunch of pre qualifications that many potential buyers submit as part of house hunting exercise to demonstrate to sellers their creditworthiness. Therefore, one needs to wonder how many of these applications are going to result in an actual purchase (loan)? The refi applications, on the other hand, should be actual apps. They should fall much faster as rates go up because the primary reasons for the refi is gone. Furthermore, it will be interesting to see how many loans can close now, especially those not yet locked in. Would the ones looking for a fixed loan be forced to move into a hybrid, the hybrids to ARMs, the ARMs to IOs and the IOs to negative amortization? Housing, if I remember my textbook econ 101 correctly, has a multiplier effect of around 4. In a hot market like San Diego, and southern Cal, the construction industry is still supported by all the homes still being reconstructed after the fires of 2003. When those are completed, what is left for the thousands in the construction trade? Remodels? not without refinancing. The vicious circle begins?

To: russwinter who wrote (29185)	3/23/2005 12:08:42 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 110194

<Mortgage applications fell for the fifth time in six weeks;> While I'm pouring out my limited but hands on RE wisdom, let me say that with the building boom we've had and idea for "A Phoenix rising from the ashes" company would be a rollup called "Mr.FiX It"... roll up all the best {like anyone would know how to find 'em} contractors in each area to make a business of fixing and keeping up all the shoddy houses built during the boom! It'll be like HomeDepot, only they come and fix all the stuff. While we're at it, all the lawyers working for title companies can create a roll up to sue builders for the money to pay "Mr. Fix-it"!! I know you've got some SERIOUS coin going to be spent by Dell Web in N.Scottsdale for the stucko {"I got STUCKO I'll tell you!"- Groucho Marx speaking about his FL. R/E venture} that they used nonconforming metals and 'garbage' in. DAK