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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: mishedlo who wrote (26174)3/23/2005 9:47:11 AM
From: zonder  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Mish, you are beginning to sound like Nostradamus :-)

The endgame has not changed
the path that get's us there required higher interest rates to prick the housing bubble.

No more no less.
Not once in history has debt like ours been inflated away.
It's not different this time unless you think everyone borrowing zillions of dollars and going on shopping sprees were correct.
As for me, I will be right and you can taunt me all the way if you choose.


I agree with you on the underlying problems of the US and don't deny that somewhere down the line, years in the future, US might face a deflationary threat. The present reality is an inflationary one, though, although I don't expect you to acknowledge it :-)

Templeton plays the market with a 3-5 year view, but the rest of us, who are somewhat less solvent tend to play with a 1-6 month horizon at most.

Eventually, you might be right, but that is so far in the future for now as to be completely irrelevant to our present day investment strategy.

You've been expecting deflation for a year now, and inflation has been increasing quite steadily. I do wonder sometimes what it will take for you to see the inaccuracy of your worldview, but I accepted by now that I may not live to see the day, and it's OK :-)



To: mishedlo who wrote (26174)3/23/2005 11:05:05 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Respond to of 116555
 
mish remember Y2K and the DOT COM bubble well we are closing into May FED meeting were 1/2 point rise will prick the RE bubble IMHO



To: mishedlo who wrote (26174)3/23/2005 11:05:52 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 116555
 
mish remember Y2K and the DOT COM bubble well we are closing into May FED meeting were 1/2 point rise will prick the RE bubble IMHO.

After that - see again 1% rates to "save the economy"