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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (29222)	3/23/2005 1:17:47 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Huge dealer securities lending today, usually a sign that even higher rates short term are on the way. ny.frb.org The Sept ED has four more straight rate hikes priced in. I don't think we go that far, before the wheels come off. However, for me to go long EDs, I'd like to see these things, so far it's not enough: 1. 2-10 years spread under 70. 2. Credit spreads widen. This needs to be solidly over 18.00, maybe closer to 18.50. stockcharts.com[m,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b50][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G 3. A stock market break. 4. Rasmussen consumer under 110 for awhile. It's close, consumer already looks in trouble. rasmussenreports.com 5. MBA purchase index under 400, for three weeks straight, and the refi staying under 2000 for at least as long. This may be an outlier number according to Ramsey though? Message 21160864 6. Drop in Baltic below 400, quote.bloomberg.com and a continuation in the yoy drop in steel output.