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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (23114)3/23/2005 1:31:51 PM
From: rrufff  Respond to of 108576
 
Good question:

- simple answer:

...because Free Markets are ultimately apolitical.


Yet, you seem to believe that free markets can be USED and manipulated for political reasons. This seems to be a distinction without a difference with all due respect.

With respect to your theory of the neocons trying to force the Chinese to revalue, it is interesting in theory. I previously posted this:

I'd like to see an analysis of what happens if China revalues by 25%. What does it mean for China's rapidly expanding economy?

It's cost of oil goes down, as oil priced in dollars. How much of China's industrial production is dependent exclusively on oil?

Value of its dollar reserves and US assets (very,very huge) goes down.

Imports become less expensive, encourages consumption. However, it is likely many years before they face a consumer driven inflation.

Exports become more expensive. This is their major worry. Where would it place them with respect to their primary competitors.


Yes, the US built its defense forces to the extent that it caused the USSR to imitate it and, perhaps ultimately, caused the destruction of the USSR. This is a bit different from your theory I believe and it ignores the fact that the US would have likely built up its military to the same degree even if there were no USSR. The military-industrial complex always needs to focus on some "adversary." Again, this is not a political statement, but one of fact.



To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (23114)3/23/2005 11:20:38 PM
From: croesus1111  Respond to of 108576
 
"Oil can be used as a "vehicle" to apply the brakes on the over-heated & over-liquified economy without some of the negative ramifications of raising Interest Rates."

That is a true statement, but increasing oil prices have, as you know, some negative ramifications of their own. Like inflation. Which may cause the Fed to have to raise interest rates anyway.