Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kailuabruddah who wrote (29249)	3/24/2005 12:21:02 AM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

I think you are on target. Perhaps the economy would have been weak for a number of years and many of us would not be here expecting a major downturn in housing and the economy but instead looking forward to the start of a new period of prosperity like say around 1993 or 1982. Sure seems to me that whatever they tried to avoid in 2002 by taking rates down to 1% will only be more magnified the coming downturn. I think the major problem was the misallocation of capital into real estate perhaps due to a lack of trust in the financial markets and distrust for corporate America. But I'd have to say there is some blame that goes to the administration for continuing to push this ownership society program. Doubt Greenspan has much say in allowing the very loose underwriting and reckless loan programs being peddled the past few years because whether he bottomed the fed funds at 1% or 1.75% the evolution of loan programs would have continued. Big blame goes to the banks, mortgage companies and Fannie/Freddie. Only a decade ago the whole industry was coming out of the worst disaster since the depression so to me it is incredible that the whole industry has such short memories.

To: kailuabruddah who wrote (29249)	3/24/2005 7:36:00 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Goldberg's comments: financialsense.com There is a 14.25 Fed repo maturing today from an already low balance, bullandbearwise.com and a 17.0 Treasury TIO on Friday (a holiday). That's bunch of potential liquidity sucking out, and will be tough to replace all that without getting unduly aggressive. Starting in the next couple weeks, Bully and other taxpayers will need to start writing out last minute checks of about $100 billion to Uncle Sam. Another ugly ARMs reset coming for another set of silly season cohorts. Should produce a nice drop in bank deposits, which are already flat YTD. federalreserve.gov 01/05/2005 5335.6 01/12/2005 5349.4 01/19/2005 5355.9 01/26/2005 5328.1 02/02/2005 5351.7 02/09/2005 5331.5 02/16/2005 5326.4 02/23/2005 5389.9 03/02/2005 5392.9 03/09/2005 5385.4