Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (26234)	3/24/2005 6:42:46 AM
From: croesus1111	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

<Then they will have to defy gravity, by subsidizing money losers on a much more massive scale, print even more money out of thin air, etc.> You think that will take more than the forex that they have accumulated?

To: russwinter who wrote (26234)	3/24/2005 9:59:14 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

From GS on the FOOL about House Hunting in Detroit As some of you know, we have been actively looking for a bigger house in the Detroit area. We go back and forth between staying in our current house (small but cheap and great location), buying a bigger house, and pocketing the somewhat shocking gains on our current house and renting a bigger house. Last month I was convinced that we were going to buy (and wrote that here), but a lot of tossing and turning at night made us wonder if our intuition was right in the first place. We usually don't have that much trouble making decisions. The GM situation, which Rodger and others here correctly predicted, will make it even worse and has put the suppliers in a bind, many of whom also risk bankruptcy. We are in the thick of the auto industry. My husband works for a supplier (diversified and global, Thank God) and I get the news vicariously from my clients. Our situation is secure, but we never know how long we'll be in Detroit -- two years? forever? If we knew, it would make the decision MUCH easier. What stinks is we are ready to move in every way, but we aren't ready to buy a house that we can't sell if we need to move in the next few years or risk losing a pile of money, and that appears very likely to happen. If we knew that the automotive crisis would pass and that the underpinnings of the economy were sound, it would be an easy decision. As it is, we just can't pull the trigger. Here is what we have seen while house hunting: a LOT of houses for sale, a lot of empty houses, foreclosures, and houses that have been on the market for 6 months or more. After years of reading in the Sunday paper that the housing market was great, I wondered when they would finally fess up and admit that the situation ain't so rosy any more. Finally, this Sunday they did: "It's a really sluggish market and sluggish inventory right now," said Tina McNeal-O'Brien, assistant manager of Real Estate One's corporate office in Southfield. "People don't know what's going on with the economy right now, and they're really hesitant to get into those larger purchases. There's so much downsizing in the white-collar market right now." .... "The Zantops' home, overlooking the seventh hole of Copper Creek Golf Course, is on the market for the third time in as many years. ... [T]he home has spent 644 total days on the market. The house was first listed in May 2003 at an asking price of $649,900. It was reduced to $599,900 in September of 2003 and then relisted at the same price in January 2004. The home was listed with Spiro last month at the current price of $549,900. Dian Zantop said their first Realtor had the home overpriced. This time around, they put nearly $10,000 into improvements, including refinishing the hardwood floors, installing granite kitchen counters, removing dated wallpaper, painting and installing new lighting. They reduced the asking price by $100,000 and threw in a custom-built, $18,000 entertainment center. They already had spent $100,000 to finish the basement in 2003." And these people are "real estate investors." freep.com So much for real estate always going up. I also don't think that Detroit's economy is cut off from the rest of the U.S. [And -- anyone who thinks that real estate has to go up because of demographics should check out not only Japan but Germany, where it has not been a good investment over the last 10 years, although they have much less land than the U.S. When I lived there in the early 90's EVERYONE was buying rental property.] Hope you are all well. GS

To: russwinter who wrote (26234)	3/24/2005 1:52:44 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Mish: I have often wondered if tracking P/C ratios makes much sense at all. Today we have those 300,000 LU calls skewing the call side but we could also have seen a bullish bet by shorting 300,000 LU puts. Given that bullish bets can be made either with calls or puts and given that someone always has to take the other side of the trade, to what extent is all of this just noise anyway? Would it make more sense to track small speculator puts and calls? Even if it could be done you still have the problem of both short puts, and long calls being bullish. Then again you have covered calls which are quite different that shorting calls or going long calls straight up. I often wonder if this is just complete noise almost all of the time, barring “unusual” activity from retail investors.I have also not figured out how to track what I am asking or if it can even be done. Finally do you make any distinction between QQQ puts and calls vs non-index puts and calls and if so why? John Succo Minyanville: I agree that it is noise as you point out. I pay no attention to p/c. I look at implied vols for sentiment. Right now that is still complacent, but not recklessly so.