Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (26253)	3/24/2005 4:06:08 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Grain Report WEEKLY: ?MARCH 24, 2005 Hi, this is Tim Hannagan, and it is Thursday, March 24, 2005, and this is my weekly review. ? CORN: ?Corn started the week with Monday?s weekly export inspection report showing last week?s price strength chased importers away coming in at 26.6 m.b. versus 28.9 the week prior. ?Thursday?s weekly export sales report showed 880 t.t. of corn was sold last week off 13% from the week prior. ?Another example of softening demand. ?Last Friday I gave the reasons why May corn should push to as low as 2.10. ?the week?s low was 2.09. ?Next week sees what many think is the most important report of the year. ?The planted acreage report. ?Actually, they always say it is not what you plant but what you grow that counts. ?The average trade guess going into next Thursday?s March 31st acreage report is for corn acres to come in at 2 million acres over last year?s record crop. ?One or two m.a. more is insignificant and should lend to only minor selling on the opening. ?The reason, because you can plant two m.a. more and have a dry summer and produce for less than the year prior. ?Now, if it comes in three or four m.a. more we can expect a sharper move lower as that many acres allow room during the growing season to have some dry periods and still produce a record crop. ?Since the trade perceives next week?s report to be bearish we should expect shorts to enter ahead of it. ?2.03 is a reasonable objective before, or the day of or after the report. ?Once they have priced in the report look for short covering to enter. WHEAT:? Monday started with our weekly export inspection report coming in at 22.6 m.b. versus 13.8 the week prior.? It suggested that previous weak demand maybe coming to an end but the better week to date number is still bearish as 40 m.b. or better would be needed to be bullish.? Thursday?s weekly export sales report showed 320 t.t. of wheat was sold last week off 42% from the week prior and 28% below our weak four week average.? Note, last week?s sales suffered from 9 month high prices.? We have fallen appreciably on prices since so, we should expect some demand to surface.? On last Friday?s report I gave two support to fall down to this week on month end profit taking.? They were 3.40 then 3.30 basis May futures.? The low on the week was 3.35.? Next week is tricky because all the thinking is on corn and bean acres and wheat acre opinions are hard to find.? It appears they expect all wheat to come in only marginally higher or lower with no significant change.? This neutral attitude could lead to a real surprise.? Chart wise 3.30 basis May is strong support.? A close under here and 3.12 to 3.20 is next stop.? I cannot buy wheat yet.? Winter wheat will break dormancy soon.? Crop ratings currently put it far ahead of a year ago and demand remains weak.? There is still room for softer prices next week. BEAN:? Monday began with our weekly export inspection report showing 19.7 m.b. of beans were inspected for near term export, down from 34.3 the week prior and four week average of 30.? This clearly showed importers saw last week?s eight month high rally to 6.914 and an impending Brazilian harvest at about 50% complete now would further abate demand.? Thursday?s weekly export sales report showed 346 t.t. of beans were sold last week.? This was off 45% from the week prior and 42% below our four week average and a new marketing year low going back to Sept. 1.? Another weekly example of demand getting ready to buy Brazilian beans.? Last Friday on my weekly review I said look for fund profit taking to pull May beans back to 6.24 with worst case scenario down to 6.06.? the week?s low was 6.14.? The entire month of February we called on this research line a end to the drought rally by March 15th as my studies saw that date as the end of their pod setting stage for even the latest planted beans and once they are done growing you cannot kill yields anymore and the pricing rally on the drought would end.? Our eight month high was 6.914 on the 16th.? I also noted on my Friday March 11th report that funds would take month end profits early this month as they very last week of March they would be buyers again ahead of the March 31st acreage report.? Funds always reverse positions and take profits as contracts give bonuses on profits taken before months end.? Next wee, we look for some of the money that sold out of their long positions to come back in and buy lending to a higher tone to pricing as traders look for a two m.a. cut in bean acres on our planting intension report and fear a possible three or four m.a. cut.? After the report we might expect prices to retreat again as traders see Brazilian beans flood the market cutting further U.S. exports. End.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (26253)	3/24/2005 4:33:33 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

Le Tax: Do the French have it right? ...... Sales or income tax....or both? So how would a value-added tax work in the United States? One proposal getting a lot of attention comes from Michael Graetz, a Yale Law School professor who was the chief tax policy adviser under Bush's father and is said to have turned down an offer to serve the same role in the current Bush administration. Graetz's idea, in its simplest form, is to exempt all households with less than $100,000 a year from paying income taxes. Income over $100,000 would be taxed at 25 percent. To replace the revenue lost by the large exemption and lower tax rate, Graetz would institute a value-added tax on most goods and services at a rate of 10 percent to 14 percent. I am sure with that thread title the neocons are ready to puke. Hmmm. How about the details? Bush and Greenspan want to change the tax code. Is the time right? money.cnn.com What say yee all? Is this the right way to go? I actually think this is a nice compromise. If Bush can pull off this plan and shelter income tax below 100,000 (Mish Idea... cap at 100K permament on low end but cap raised every year adjusted for inflation on the high end) I think I am for it. Not 100% positive, but leaning that way. I want to hear the arguments. Is it time for something like this? Have at it. Mish