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To: John F. Poteraske who wrote (32368)3/24/2005 6:51:14 PM
From: ST Trader  Respond to of 120414
 
I was told that there would be no surprise with their earnings release next week. If there is, you can bet that there will be hell to pay, with the way the stock has traded over the last week. I am holding my shares until earnings and their earnings guidance is released, then I will reevaluate. This dramatic of a selloff right before earnings, is very strange indeed.



To: John F. Poteraske who wrote (32368)3/24/2005 10:58:14 PM
From: bradl1  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 120414
 
DAAT - Earnings Release Early Next Week

There is no way there can be any significant surprises in the earnings. They have a fairly predictable cost structure and report monthly sales, so we have known the revenue numbers for some time. I estimate EPS of about 19.5 (so rounded it could come out as either 19 or 20). Should equate to about 17.5 on a fully taxed basis.

The big question will be 2005 guidance, which very likely will also be issued. They supposedly were waiting until meeting with WalMart to issue. They had previously suggested that 05 EPS would be around .30. To hit that number, fully taxed, they would likely need revenue growth of 40-60%, depending on margin for new products. They exceeded that growth in the first two months, but it is really late in the year that is key.

Fear about this guidance (or insider knowledge) would be the only thing that could reasonably be driving the price, now down from 3.5 to 2.4 on no news. At this point, even if they came out with guidance for only .25 I think it is way undervalued. On an equivalent fully taxed basis that would still be almost a 50% increase in EPS and yet another strong year of revenue growth on top of a good balance sheet.

Most of the companies discussed on this board have potential, but very few have the combination of a good balance sheet, predictable and stable cost structure, low share count, substantial real fully taxed earnings, and several consecutive years of strong growth. DAAT has grown revenues by an average of 50% over the past 4 years, with only modest increases in cost. More impressive is that the growth was actually stronger last year, against a higher base. EPS growth exceeds revenue growth. I also love the monthly sales reports, which really let you know how the company is doing between quarters.