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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gush who wrote (6988)	3/25/2005 12:44:38 AM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8752

Hi DG, My prediction has very little or nothing to do with short-term bottoms and momentum indicators. That's not how I arrived at this assessment. But that said, your suggestion is a very good one: the stochastic is a momentum indicator that can be applied to just about any time frame. Here's how it looks on the weekly chart. I use this weekly chart because that is the best way to visualize medium-term and long-term trends. I think this chart is instructive: 139.142.147.218 You can see here that particularly the last 3 or 4 stochastic crossovers have done a very good job of predicting medium-term trend changes. If you examine this chart carefully, I think you will also see that a signal in Williams precedes the stochastic crossover by at least a week, but usually about 2 weeks or so (sometimes more). QQQQ is definitely very oversold now, but can and will get more oversold IMHO. We do not yet have a signal in Williams... it has flattened out, but I would require it to be moving upwards with a very steep slope before I would call it a signal (this is a good criteria, judging from the oscillations in Williams at the past trend changes in this chart). Once we see a clear signal from Williams, then we can begin to anticipate a stochastic crossover about 2 weeks later. So I think the momentum indicators (Williams and stochastics) corroborate my analysis, which was not based on these indicators. That is, technicals suggest that at this point, the time frame I outlined (at least 2 weeks, maybe as much as 4) is reasonable. T