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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bearcatbob who wrote (40837)	3/25/2005 10:28:09 PM
From: Proud Deplorable	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206317

"Weakening of the dollar - ok - against what?" There you go Bob! You are finally starting to see that the fiat alternatives are limited and when the USD is the strongest of the horrible lot of them you will see why, inevitably when not if, gold will be the thing to own. I don't know about Coxe, I don't follow these people too much either way. What will be will be and none of us has the capacity to fully understand everything that is going on so one picks a position at the poker table and plays their hands to the best of the understanding they have at that particular moment. I'm not so sure I am blinded by politics because I am well read and have an acute sense that tells me when something is real or not. I have lifelong marketing and advertising experience and so am fully qualified to spot manipulation, subtrefuge and propaganda. That said, you might liken the currency choices to the past election in America. Most people picked between two major losers with little qualification to steer a ship as big as the USA much less try to rule the world. I was neutral because I don't trust any of the parties. So in the currency wars I really favor gold right now. It has to be. It has to happen. The USD is not a viable investment and like you said the Euro is fragile and the Japs are idiots and the Chinese are tied to the USD. Gold my friend and stay in the energy trend as it's the place to be LT. Where you are blind is that you believe that the USD deserves to be the stronger currency. The USD deserves to go to zero in my opinion and the EU should come out the strongest but if it doesn't do you pretend that Europeans will flock to the dollar? Hmmmmm I bet that when push comes to shove and it will, that they will flock to gold and silver. Hard to envision? Time will tell. anyway do you have a link to it?

To: Bearcatbob who wrote (40837)	3/25/2005 10:36:34 PM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206317

Bob, This week's call is basically an extension of last week's. He's telling investors to not to commit new funds at the same time as he's admitting the best performance of their portfolio was in energy and mining names, which are a small portion of their portfolio, so they haven't enjoyed much upside. Remember last week he made the 'this time is different' call on the mining sector. I responded that I was concerned it might be a bad call. Message 21131050 After today's call, including the miss on Europe and the miss on the Bond market, I really wondered if he listened to Greenspan speak on Wednesday. There is now the chance the Fed will think have to raise 50bp to combat the inflation they now see (finally) and I'm betting that the market hasn't priced this in (yet). I think a bad slowdown in the US and China will make not taking profits here a missed opportunity. Coxe is telling his followers to stay the course. My question is whether there will be enough liquidity in the system later in the year to get the energy stocks anywhere near the levels we've seen. Coxe is calling for higher highs than this (that's why he's not suggesting taking profits, although he did mention a reducing of exposure to equities by 5%) I am concerned we're getting bad calls here. If I'm not mistaken, we're in a dollar up everything else down cycle, and it could last for awhile. I've been taking profits. Cheers, David

To: Bearcatbob who wrote (40837)	3/26/2005 8:57:49 AM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206317

Don Coxe Sounded A Bit Shaken Yesterday. In his previous Call, he allowed that he was now wondering if the bond market was facing a 1994-type situation. But in this call, I do think the tenor of his voice and his remarks indicate that a higher dollar at least for the short-term begins to reverse the liquidity that has made all the anti-dollar trades work so beautifully. He did not refute the latest theory passing around Wall Street that Peak Earnings for the energy names may come in Q1 2005. I refute it, but that's just me. I would have liked to hear from Coxe a more robust defense, however, of many of the Energy Names on a valuation basis. I know that he prefers to not "name names" in the call, but he still could have referenced Blue Chips selling for PE's less than 10, and many names selling still for 5-6-7-8 times cash flow. My point is that one would have expected Coxe, at this particular juncture, to poo-pooh the percieved Fireworks that have come since the Fed spoke (supposedly) to the issue of Inflation. But he did not dismiss it. In general, it seems most people have been caught-off sides to the Fed this week. Yes, it's all a bunch of hoo-hah in the sense we've been getting Inflation Data all along. But the Fed still carries the imprimatuer of "Authority" (even as they've eroded their credibility in the eyes of many--me included.) Frankly, my personal view is that these Fed "surprises" merely have the function of producing a Smackdown, from which people can re-load the same old positions. I think this time will be no different. The dollar looks like a Juicy Short from above 84.00 and I'm pretty sure many traders are think the same thing. Chevron Texaco and Conoco P. meanwhile selling for less than 10x trailing earnings is also very juicy and it's very, very funny to see people even spooked from these names over the past several weeks. LP