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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chowder who wrote (40852)	3/26/2005 11:05:34 AM
From: xxreno	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206319

dabum. Thank you for your tireless efforts. One simple way to look at fundamentals for the NG stocks, and to some extent the service stocks is to watch the Bid Week Closing numbers. Que occasionally posts an Xcel spread sheet showing the historical numbers. The Bid Week Close for February 05 was $6.29, and for March was $6.21. The average Bid Week price for Q1 2004 was $5.69. The Bid Week Close for Q1 05 was $6.24. For the E&P's I own and, I believe, many others, their hedge positions are more positive. Therefore one would expect to see better Q1 earnings this year than last. If you assume a $7 number for next Tuesday, NG would only need to average $5.50 for May and June to beat the $5.99 Q2 04 number. And NG would only need $5.86 to beat the Q1 05 number. Considering all of the variables, I would not even hazard a guess regarding what NG will do over the next nine weeks. But am unwilling to bet that NG closes for under $5.86 for May and June. You might check my math, since, as my wife will verify, I occasionally make mistakes. And I hold my own prognostications in no higher esteem than that of others. But yoy and quarter over quarter numbers to not seem to appear unfavorable yet. Good luck. xxreno

To: chowder who wrote (40852)	3/26/2005 11:41:58 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206319

dabum3: About your advice on taking profits in Conoco. On this thread since 2004, there've been only two people that I see who've actually written that they've bought COP - that's me a couple times and whitepine (8/13). Others have written opinions, provided news articles, or said they once worked at Conoco -- but these posters never said they themselves were buyers or holders. Your advice might be right (or not) as regards COP. For me, I'm adding - not selling - as COP continues up. I call the stock undervalued.

To: chowder who wrote (40852)	3/27/2005 4:50:58 PM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206319

I've started Reading Your Posts and Am Very Intrigued by the idea of using FA to enter a trade and using TA to aid in knowing when to sell. I was wondering if you noticed the rise in both Short Interest and OI in the Put options on the XLE, very recently? It appears the Majors too have seen a good rise in Short Interest as well. My comment about people selling COP and CVX, as examples, does not, indeed, take into account the myriad different sellers. Yes you are right it cannot only be people who are spooked. I was just using hyperbole to highlight the current valuation of these two Names. I don't follow the fundamentals so I do have a question if anyone can answer it. If peak earnings are to hit this quarter, how does that bode for earnings growth looking forward and what impact will that have on share prices? A difficult question to answer in such a way as to apply to all stocks in the sector. One answer is that many stocks only rose in February to a point where they corrected gross undervaluation. Now many are merely undervalued. Another answer would be that even if Q1 is peak earnings, the crude futures strip suggest much, much higher earnings in 2005 than 2004. Another answer would be the energy stocks simply get hammered because no one wants to think about the back half of 2005 yet--and "peak earnings" is an idea that could be easily understood, and become popular. Best, LP

To: chowder who wrote (40852)	3/27/2005 9:54:53 PM
From: Taikun	Respond to of 206319

dabum, <If peak earnings are to hit this quarter, how does that bode for earnings growth looking forward and what impact will that have on share prices?> I was told by a retired energy analyst that the shares of Exxon and the other major oil names trading in the 1970s peaked about 3 years before profits peaked. I don't have the data to affirm or refute this but this is a retired NYSE energy analyst who was working in NY in the early 70's and he stands by that. D

To: chowder who wrote (40852)	3/27/2005 10:30:16 PM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206319

I have wondered why the mega-caps like XOM, BP, TOT, RD and CVX don't buy an Independent, and, hedge the purchase by selling forward in the futures market. RD could buy Burlington Resources or Anadarko or Devon, scoop wonderful reserves, and hedge the purchase with futures sales. Is that coming? Meanwhile, Kurt Wullf suggests something similar in tonight's free posting: that individual traders sell the Futures, and buy the stocks. The arbitrage makes sense. mcdep.com LP