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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (21960)	3/27/2005 10:13:50 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 42834

"If you examine a graph of the market indexes from 1966-1982, you will see that the second and third cyclical bear markets made successive new lows with the lowest low made in the 1974-75 bear market. The next cyclical bear bottomed out at a higher low. With the last cyclical bear low made in late summer 1982 at DOW 777, the market finally launched." What if you include dividends? Granted the losses to inflation were huge back then, but I recall those who had good dividend paying stocks didn't complain too much. With our changed tax laws, companies repurchase shares with some funds that had gone to dividends in the past. AMAT is going to pay a 0.75% dividend and repurchase $4B shares which is roughly 14% of its market cap. This repurchase should help the price go up, all else being equal. Say they do it over 3 years. They could probably pay a 4 or 5% dividend instead and let the price go nowhere. I think the option game which favors share repurchase over dividends is a big reason we've seen dividends so small. If we change to restricted stock to reward insiders, then I'd not be surprised to see more dividends, since insiders would benefit as well as shareholders. AMAT @ $16.63 Market Cap: $27.74B P/E (ttm): 18.27 EPS (ttm): $0.91 Div & Yield: $0.12 (0.72%) Total Cash per Share $3.84 Do you think Splinter waited until all of his 1¢ AMAT options were vested and used to buy AMAT stock before he announced the dividend? K

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (21960)	3/28/2005 1:30:57 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

You are right. I remember reading some material explaining why the '66 decline was mild and the ones in '70 and '74 were pretty strong. And IIRC, the '74 low was not all that lower from that in '70...? Also, the same article said that while the 2005-06 decline might be strong enough to be called a bear-market (ie 20 percent plus), it will be relatively modest. However, the next decline, i.e. the 2010 low will be quite dramatic, esp because the author expects the 2007-2008 highs to challenge the 2000 highs... By 2012 or so, we will be 12 years into the secular bear. And somewhere along the way, you can expect to see a replay of what James Grant experienced in 1978... "Let me tell you about 1974-75. A friend of mine... climbed into [a] taxi cab about 1978. This was three years after the bottom. And the cab driver asked him what he did and he told him he was in Wall Street. And he said, "Wall Street?" They still sellin' that crap?" (Laughs)"