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To: The Freep who wrote (115519)	3/28/2005 7:19:01 AM
From: stkboy1	Respond to of 209892

Edit : Delete

To: The Freep who wrote (115519)	3/28/2005 7:19:01 AM
From: stkboy1	Respond to of 209892

Edit: Sorry Freep, didn't mean to direct to you. E-Wave update fwiw. investorshub.com EW chart check US Indexes Since weeks the implications of the current price development was discussed here. With a view one to two years out so far a scenario was assumed that only left little upside potential. In the end a medium term, multi-months, dynamic bear wave should begin that especially in the second and third quarters led to significant losses. During the past weeks an interesting situation developed despite the recent losses. In some indexes there is a justifiable chance that there will be another (albeit short term) rise that can span 6 – 10 weeks. Instead of a detailed index analysis there shall be given an overview about the wave technical situation of the big US indexes. 1. Dow Jones Industrial During the past weeks there was a clear downward impulse, that is not yet complete, however. It has to be assumed that this will happen until the end of March, with a low around 10.400 likely during this week. What next? It could be seen that the downward impulse is part of a new multi-months bear move that brings prices of under 10.000 until autumn, just as the original ideal scenario had it. The problem is in the just three parts rise of February/March. Due to the missing impulsivity it should just be an overshooting wave B of (B). Thus there is the realistic chance that in early April a 2-3 months upward wave starts, which brings prices to 11.100, so that there the yearly high is marked with a trend change to follow. It will become interesting in spring insofar whether the break of 10.690 succeeds. Even in the negative case there will be a pullback to that retracement. DJIA daily chart: wallstreet-online.de 2. S&P500-Index Similar situation as with the Dow. Three parts rise to early March, even though a new intermediate high was marked. As the top of early January is counted as the end point of the main thrust wave 3 in the SPX the most reasonable count is a flat correction as wave 4. The retreat of the past weeks was impulsive and can be counted as wave c of 4. Naturally at the current level there is heightened risk as a significant break of the still intact medium term uptrend would immediately generate more downside potential. Still, even in the negative case a lot favors an intermediate low latest at 1162 points. In the coming weeks, latest early April, there will be a multi-week counter move to the recent losses. The correction target is at 1198 points, with the ideal scenario of course also seeing that level broken. If the index should turn down again at that level it is getting dangerous. wallstreet-online.de (Excursion: How to read Bob’s charts. His favored scenario is always counted in red, here we are about to finish wave 4. His alternative count is always in blue. The yellow price levels are target areas or in case the alternative scenario is being realized, potential target areas. The pink levels always represent the KO level for the favored scenario and the activation point of the alternative scenario. Here a break of the rising support line would lead to the alternative scenario and thus wave 1 down with the downside potential going to 1100 (within the blue wave 3 for the beginning). Even in this negative case within wave 2 (blue) a pullback to the retracement to around 1198 would be assumed. The break of 1198 would confirm his currently favored scenario with subsequent upside potential to 1240 if no extension is realized within the red wave 5.) 3. Nasdaq100-Index Also this past week trend dynamics did not increase, even though new intermediate lows were marked. It can be doubted that the originally significantly lower price targets on the short side are being realized within this current move. The missing extension within wave iii of C leads to the result that already at the current level a lasting bottom is getting increasingly likely. While the corrective patterns of Thursday will lead to a new low in the coming weeks we are just talking about losses to 1457, in the worst case 1446. For the first time since the beginning of the year there is even the possibility of a multi-months rise, which makes up most of the losses since year end. The primary price target is at 1575 two months out. That of course assumes the break of the short term very steep falling trend channel and the falling resistance line. A technical alternative would be a double zigzag with a wave X around 1525. However, that does not change the impending trend change. wallstreet-online.de 4. BTK-Biotech Index The ideal scenario of the past weeks in principle saw a sideways phase within the discussed triangle boundaries. Instead there was an, albeit slow down move to under support at 492. Even the daily chart shows that the current retreat barely can be counted as a classic impulse wave. There are too sharp counter moves coupled with wave overlaps and there are missing extensions. Therefore chart technically the medium term situation is unchanged: with a view 2-4 months out there will be a sideways move between 480 and 550. Whether it is a triangle or a more complex correction is of no significance at present. The next bigger move will be on the long side. The primary target is at 525 points. Whether there will be an extension to the upper range at 550 is still open. Medium term, latest at the start of summer, there will be a new bear wave, no change here. wallstreet-online.de 5. Dow Jones Composite The impulsive structures of the past two years cannot be overseen. Since May 2004 impulse wave (5) is under way, whose completion also marks the end of the entire rise since 2002. Chart technically there is remaining technically realizeable upside potential to 3.700 in the medium term, whether it will be used is another question. As with the other indexes also in the Composite the rise to early March was only in three waves, which also here leads to a favored flat correction. Latest at 3290 the current down move should be completed and the medium term uptrend continued. The price target of wave v of 3 is at 3560. In doubt the intact uptrend determines the direction so long as no complete upwards fiver is existent. The limit as KO level is at 3200. wallstreet-online.de 6. AMEX Pharmaceuticals Index ($DRG) Since July a complex wave /B/ is under way, which with a high probability will last another 1-2 years and top in the upper 300 area. The decline of the past 12 months is part of wave (B) of /B/ is likely is not complete yet as there continue to be no impulse patterns on the long side. The moderate rise since autumn should be finished latest at 332 and then lead to a wave C of (B). The next big move will be on the short side. With a view 3-6 months out there is downside potential to the support at 275+. Only at that lower level there will be a lasting bottom. wallstreet-online.de 7. Nasdaq Telecommunication Index ($IXTC) The wave technical situation is different here as with the rise till year end the top of January 2004 was not breached. The retreat to August, as the move till December was only in three waves. Therefore there is the likely possibility of a medium term corrective triangle. The downmove since year end (so far impulsive) is part of wave C which in the next weeks needs another downside move (second impulse). Ideally there will be a low at 173 in spring followed by a trend change. This count implies a large sideways phase between 170 and 200 in the medium term. Only in autumn there will be a thrust up. The technical KO level is the lower triangle boundary (see chart). wallstreet-online.de 8. S&P Midcap 400 Index ($MID) The situation is similar to the SPX. Also here the rise to early March (despite new highs) was only in three parts, so that an overshooting wave 4 is favored. As long as the important support at 635 holds there is still a missing wave 5 of (5) on the long side. wallstreet-online.de 9. Russell2000-Index ($RUT) The rise to early March not only was in three parts but the index also did not reach a new intermediate high. As there was no wave overlap with a purported wave 2 a broad wave 4 is the most likely scenario. Two to four months out there is remaining potential to 670 points on the long side where the entire rally of the past years is completed. In the second half of the year most likely a new medium term bear move begins. The KO level is at 595 points. wallstreet-online.de 10. S&P Smallcap 600 Index ($SML) Same wave picture as with the SPX and MID: a current wave c of 4 to a max of 309 points. Afterwards a wave 5 to the upper 340 area. KO level is 305. wallstreet-online.de 11. SOX Semiconductor Index ($SOX) Medium term there is latent remaining potential to a max of 500 points. That should not deceive that it is only the end phase of a multi-year correction wave. In the second half of the year a new, also multi-year, bear move begins, which in the first big move brings prices to under 300. For the next months the expectation of a wave (C ) of /E/ remains, which brings prices to above 460, ideally around 500. The count of a wave 2 with overshooting flat does not have to be changed yet. Of course a soon trend change and rebreak of 426 are required as else an extension to 365 cannot be prevented. wallstreet-online.de 12. Dow Jones Transport Index ($TRAN) Since 12 months there is a strongly extending impulse wave, which in the longer term is counted as wave /C/. As soon as there is a complete upside fiver from this low there will be a medium to long term trend change and the index will decline for the following years. The best wave count is within a not yet complete main thrust wave (3). Since January wave 5 of (3) is under way, which alternatively can directly be counted as wave (5). The current downside correction is again an intermediate correction within an intact uptrend. As long as index keeps staying above 3670, the short term KO level, there is upside potential to 3930+ three to six weeks out. Following this medium term top there is a multi-months correction to the mid 3400 area. wallstreet-online.de Conclusion: In all indexes the one to three year rally is in the end phase. Medium term the music plays on the short side again. Short term there is remaining potential on the long side, with a new yearly high in the next one to two months. The central supports are still comfortably far away, so that nothing speaks against an impending bottoming process this week. Culmus