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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: macavity who wrote (7134)	3/28/2005 10:26:41 AM
From: Casaubon	Respond to of 33421

I tend to agree with you but this seems to be a lonely boat <ggg> The only thing that nags me is inflation. I believe it is much worse than admitted. Though, I believe this is a function of easy lending policy rather than real economic activity. I was watching a piece on Frontline about cross border lend lease shams as tax dodges. UFB! Nobody seems to be paying much attention to FNM. If the shite hits the fan, what impact will this have on rates? Will mortgages be called and resold at higher rates?

To: macavity who wrote (7134)	3/28/2005 2:35:35 PM
From: Jon Koplik	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 33421

(warning -- "rant" to follow) More thoughts on no inflation .......................... The CRB a while ago touched a 24 year high. This meant that on that day (and, it has fallen a lot since then, I believe) : Someone who went long 24 years ago FINALLY reached 0% return (after having been negative continuously for 23.99 years). And, the 24 year high in the CRB is nowhere near the all-time high, which was from (I believe) the era when CBOT traders wore buttons that said : "Beans in the teens." (around 1972 or 1973) (Meaning -- maybe soybeans will reach $13.00 or higher per bushel). (The beans never quite made it back in the early 1970s). (Lately, beans are in the $5 - $6 range). So ... a broad based basket of commodities is nowhere near the levels of over 30 years ago. How anyone can look at all of this and declare "boom" or "inflation" or "surge" is "beyond me." Jon.