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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kailuabruddah who wrote (29509)	3/28/2005 9:49:27 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Richard Russell excerpts: March 28, 2005 -- All true bear market bottoms have one thing in common. They are accompanied by fear. We didn't see fear at the 2002 lows. And, in fact, we haven't seen fear since. There's something BIG coming up in the markets and in the US economy during the months ahead. If you look at the market action, if you listen to "the language of the market," you can almost taste it. Here's what I am seeing in my market studies -- Market severely oversold and overdue for a "bounce." My PTI, after hitting a high of 5605 on March 9, has now declined to where it is sitting right on its moving average. Not good. Volume tends to contract when the market rallies, and volume tends to expand when the market declines. That's bearish. The advance-decline ratio (operating companies only) topped out on February 25, and it has been sinking lower since. The advance-decline ratio (all NYSE stocks) topped out on March 7 and is now down by 11,484 issues. There's almost no way that, if the Dow rallies to a new high, the advance-decline ratio can confirm. The advance-decline line for the 30 D-J Industrials stocks has topped out and it now hitting its lowest level since last September. My 5-day high-low differentials turned negative on March 22. That's clear technical deterioration. The combined high-low figures for all three stock exchanges have now turned negative -- meaning that we're now seeing more lows than highs. Negative. The majority of advisors remain bullish -- confidence continues to remain high, which indicates that in general, investors are not positioned for any real trouble. The VIX, although now in a rising trend, remains in low territory in the 13s. Complacency still reigns. Investor's Business Daily's Mutual Fund Index is down almost 3% for the year so far. This is a negative in the big picture. The retail public is losing. The McClellan Summation Index has dropped below 1000. Not all market declines become major declines when this Index is below 1000 -- but almost all major market declines have occurred at a time when the Summation Index was below 1000. Lowry's Buying Power Index has dropped to its lowest level since its November 18 high. And Lowry's Selling Pressure Index has risen to its highest level since it November 17 low. In fact, Selling Pressure is now higher than it was when the market hit its low in January. This is clear technical deterioration and suggests that the January lows will not hold. My Big Money Breadth Index was at 726 on Thursday -- it has dropped to its lowest level since last August 13. Joe Granville's OBV figures have broken down badly. I n fact, Joe states that his various OBV statistics closely match the figures seen in 1929 just before the crash. Incredibly, Joe has researched his figures on a daily basis back to the late-1920's. Add your smart money indicator post earlier: Message 21175849