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Technology Stocks : Tivo (TIVO) Interactive TV -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito who wrote (1620)	3/28/2005 4:44:00 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 2093

i understand that Tivo sells its h/w at a loss, whereas the Extenders will sell for a profit (or what passes for a profit at tech cos :) however, when you consider the "cheap" way to pay for a Tivo sub is to plunk down $300 as soon as you sign up, a consumer doesn't need to rub too many neurons together to compare this cost to the free ongoing cost of an Extender. and, of course, you need a digital receiver (with monthly charge from MSO) for each Tivo. whereas there are no such charges for the Extender. so an Extender can be relatively expensive compared to a Tivo (though i doubt it will be once they are into the second or third generation) and still be a bargain in the long run. i don't think Tivo can compare on costs (including Tivo sub costs and receiver costs) in the long run. the bigger question in my mind is whether the MCE/Extender combo can RELIABLY produce the full range of services provided by DVRs with adequate reliability. right now, as i have already said, it is strictly bleeding edge, Version 1.0 stuff. but then again, MP3s weren't popular for a while. but then the tech got so easy that they're hugely popular. same with VOIP. so, the question is, can they make MCE/Extender as idiot-proof as the iPod, as Vonage? or not? if the answer turns out to be yes, i think Tivo faces challenges in its owned-customer business. the other wildcard is the reluctance of the MSOs to give up control of their territory. it is this proprietary nature of their turf which has made it difficult for Tivo to achieve headway thus far (despite having a better DVR than the OEM boxes of the MSOs). that works against MSFT as well. maybe Tivo abandons its "owned" business and just licenses its tech to all MSOs, thereby becoming a champion of their turf? who knows. there are a lot of moving parts in this battle.