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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vendit™ who wrote (7104)	3/28/2005 9:29:08 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Respond to of 8752

I think one thing is clear, and that is that there is a trendline above extending back 70 days to the December reversal candle. That trendline will be resistance of course, and currently sits at about $37.40 or so: 139.142.147.218 The slope of this trendline is about - 0.04/session, so in 10 more sessions it should be just about $37.00. The bottom rail is more open to question. T

To: Vendit™ who wrote (7104)	3/28/2005 10:20:20 PM
From: J.K.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8752

Reid & Terry, I think both of your charts here tell the L/R story. An obvious trend change occured 70 days ago so the old data points got thrown out and we needed new data. The next 27 days (until the Jan low) may be looked at as a transition period as the market "down-shifted" a couple of gears to find its new rhythm. Because this period is transitional, the data may be suspect for accurate L/R. Beginning with the Jan low, the slope is noticeably flatter. So, I think your second chart Reid makes more sense today, until the lower line fails, then we zoom back out to the first chart. The more I think about it, I know there is an L/R equation out there that helps you know when a set of data points becomes unuseful due to a pattern shift. For example, if the slope of the trendline changes significantly, as in our example above. For that matter, there are equations that give measure to the "validity" of an L/R model. Reid, I suppose the program in Stockcharts is using some of these equations. Regression Analysis - those courses were pretty interesting in school, but I've never used the material in my work life, so it's all a distant fog to me now. J.K.