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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tom pope who wrote (31539)	3/29/2005 11:40:05 AM
From: biostruggle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

If you assume Robinson will continue to burn money in the NLSC Targretin trials, even though the data demonstrated total ineffectiveness, and going out to 2007-2009 and assuming partner drugs come thru, one gets a discounted value of between 6-22. Wide variance because of timing of when drugs come to market and how long takes to ramp to significant revenue. Any negative finding in accounting issues will give Torts actionable offense and pretty much insure a cost of 100-200 mil to ligand. This will place Ligand with death spiral in 2007 when cv debt is due. Unfortunately as investor in this company, I would have to say the risks are much larger than the rewards. I'm looking for the exits, hopefully at a little higher price. Robinson needs to go and Ligand needs to structure itself to be profitable, stop most in house trials, so stock price can get above 7 and force cv bond to convert this year.

To: tom pope who wrote (31539)	3/29/2005 11:47:30 AM
From: david nordic	Respond to of 32384

Lgnd did not file for a 10 day extension thus a delisting may come. In both conference calls, Robinson did not give any timing to 2004 financials. I find that looking back over what Robinson said previously, is 20/20. If we do not achieve 1st line the we will go for 2nd and 3rd line. He does not say stuff like this when he does not know. He knew. The company has revenue but if a good amount is channel stuffing then the restatement may bring more bad news. I do not have confidences that all the bad news is out yet. Robinson by not answering question at the conference about details and is hiding something. It is always bad news. Lgnd greatest problem is that it spends more than it makes. 225M in revenue. Always missing the numbers by a little. Lgnd could have been on the plus side as as easy.The corporate side PFE/LLY/GLX is starting to kick in late this year. Comment from CFO Paul Maier Ontak sales were up 29% (Q4) vs 26% (Q3) but do not expect revenue to increase 3%. There are many reasons for this. However Paul never comes clean. I have been in many bios and I do not like this management team. The pipeline consist of Ontak/Targretin derivatives